Saturday, January 19, 2019



In last week’s column we discussed the potential impact of varying degrees of weather severity. This week there is one game indoors, but the other has some serious weather concerns. For a full breakdown of these games be sure to check out Evan Silva’s Matchups column.

 

Winter Weather Worries

 

New England at Kansas City (6:40 PM ET): Early in the week there was potential for an “arctic blast” during the game. Temperatures were forecasted to be below 10 degrees with a little bit of wind. Since then, things have become a bit more optimistic.

 

The current forecast suggests 26 degree temperatures with 4 MPH winds that will make it feel closer to 20 degrees. Tom Brady is fully accustomed to playing in the cold has won 24-of-28 games played in sub-30 degree temperatures. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes has very little experience in cold weather and has a below average hand size. He’s played two games this season when the temperatures are 32 degrees or colder. In those games (Baltimore and Indianapolis) he posted a 66 percent completion rate and 6.96 yards per attempt. While the completion percentage matched his season average, his yards per attempt was nearly two yards less.

 

A major caveat to this sample is that the Ravens tied with the Bears for the fewest yards per pass attempt allowed (5.8) and the Colts rank 12th (6.8). The Colts also specifically placed an emphasis on scheming to stop big plays by allowing more passes underneath. While there is a noticeable difference in his splits, I’m not ready to concede that Mahomes is significantly hurt by the weather.

 

Since 2000 there have only been 11 games played in under 10 degrees, and nine of them went under their Vegas total. When the weather is between 11-32 degrees, the over actually hits more frequently than the under. It’s really only the extreme cold that makes an impact, so unless the temperature drops below 10 degrees I would treat this game how you would any other.

 

 

Home Teams Are Dome Teams

 

LA Rams at New Orleans (3:05 PM ET): This figures to be a great game between two offensive juggernauts who combined for 80 points in their previous meeting this season.  As they are playing in the Superdome, the strong winds in the New Orleans forecast won’t make an impact.

 

 

With the Super Bowl being played indoors at Mercedes Benz Stadium this will be my last weather column of the year. Thanks for following along!

 

In last week’s column we discussed the potential impact of varying degrees of weather severity. This week there is one game indoors, but the other has some serious weather concerns. For a full breakdown of these games be sure to check out Evan Silva’s Matchups column.

 

Winter Weather Worries

 

New England at Kansas City (6:40 PM ET): Early in the week there was potential for an “arctic blast” during the game. Temperatures were forecasted to be below 10 degrees with a little bit of wind. Since then, things have become a bit more optimistic.

 

The current forecast suggests 26 degree temperatures with 4 MPH winds that will make it feel closer to 20 degrees. Tom Brady is fully accustomed to playing in the cold has won 24-of-28 games played in sub-30 degree temperatures. On the other hand, Patrick Mahomes has very little experience in cold weather and has a below average hand size. He’s played two games this season when the temperatures are 32 degrees or colder. In those games (Baltimore and Indianapolis) he posted a 66 percent completion rate and 6.96 yards per attempt. While the completion percentage matched his season average, his yards per attempt was nearly two yards less.

 

A major caveat to this sample is that the Ravens tied with the Bears for the fewest yards per pass attempt allowed (5.8) and the Colts rank 12th (6.8). The Colts also specifically placed an emphasis on scheming to stop big plays by allowing more passes underneath. While there is a noticeable difference in his splits, I’m not ready to concede that Mahomes is significantly hurt by the weather.

 

Since 2000 there have only been 11 games played in under 10 degrees, and nine of them went under their Vegas total. When the weather is between 11-32 degrees, the over actually hits more frequently than the under. It’s really only the extreme cold that makes an impact, so unless the temperature drops below 10 degrees I would treat this game how you would any other.

 

 

Home Teams Are Dome Teams

 

LA Rams at New Orleans (3:05 PM ET): This figures to be a great game between two offensive juggernauts who combined for 80 points in their previous meeting this season.  As they are playing in the Superdome, the strong winds in the New Orleans forecast won’t make an impact.

 

 

With the Super Bowl being played indoors at Mercedes Benz Stadium this will be my last weather column of the year. Thanks for following along!

 




























Source Article from http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/85787/447/weather-championship-forecast

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