Happy Thanksgiving! Hopefully everyone is tying up a bow on securing a playoff spot in their seasonal leagues. If not, then make sure you’re dabbling in DFS to tide you over for the rest of the season as you have the freedom to play any level you want.
Let me provide the disclaimer that I encourage you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. You can always cross reference these thoughts with my weekly rankings for further context. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 12 games in a PPR light…
Minnesota vs. Detroit
- After allowing 4.6 yards per carry through seven games (26th), Detroit has allowed 3.2 (5th) since.
- Minnesota ranks 32nd in rushing offense (70 yards per game) while Detroit ranks 30th (79.5).
- After allowing 77.8 rushing yards per game through five weeks, the Vikings have allowed 123.8 yards rushing per game since.
- 73.3 percent of Theo Riddick‘s points have come from receiving production, the second most behind James White (89.8 percent).
- The Lions have scored a touchdown on four of 31 possessions over their past three games (12.9 percent) 31st in the league.
- Matthew Stafford‘s average weekly finish versus the Vikings over his past seven starts has been QB17 as he’s averaged 239 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per pass attempt in those games.
- Eric Ebron has had 21.9 percent of the team targets since returning after seeing 16.2 percent when active prior to injury.
- Minnesota is the only team in the league that has yet to allow 100-yards receiving to a wide receiver this season.
- After allowing 25.5 points per game through six weeks, the Lions have allowed just 18 points per game since.
- Kyle Rudolph has seen 13.9 percent of the team targets over the past three weeks after seeing 23.1 percent of the team targets through seven games.
- Opponents average 9.8 possessions per game against the Lions, the fewest in the league.
Trust: Eric Ebron (he’s had 70 yards receiving and at least 14 points in every game since returning while Minnesota has allowed a top-10 scoring tight end in four straight games), Stefon Diggs (putting him tentaively here with the belief that he practices Wednesday, he has six or more receptions in each of his past four games and Darius Slay rarely ever moves into the slot)
Bust: Matthew Stafford (the Vikings defense hasn’t been unbeatable over the past month, but they are still mushing quarterback production and Stafford doesn’t have a strong record of accomplishment against Mike Zimmer’s defense), Marvin Jones (the Vikings aren’t allowing splash plays and Jones has fallen to the fourth or fifth option in the passing game now), Vikings Running Backs (you know the drill at this point, you can chase a short touchdown from Matt Asiata or leave them alone)
Reasonable Return: Theo Riddick (Minnesota has been giving on the ground over the past month and Riddick should surely improve on the one reception he had against the Vikings three weeks ago when he was still the RB26), Golden Tate (his touchdown in overtime masks his line from the last meeting a bit, but there’s a safe floor of points from receptions to be had), Sam Bradford (the Lions are still a target for passing efficiency and Bradford was the QB14 in Week 9 on only one touchdown), Kyle Rudolph (his role in the passing game has taken a hit since the coordinator change, but the Lions are still a weekly target for tight ends), Adam Thielen (he’s been the WR37, WR35, WR11 over the past three weeks and if Diggs somehow doesn’t play, he went 7-127-1 without Diggs active in Week 5)
Washington vs. Dallas
- Washington averages 471 yards of offense per game over the past six weeks, the most in the league.
- Dallas averages 429.2 yards of offense per game over the same span, third in the league.
- Dallas has over 400 yards from scrimmage in eight straight games, their longest streak in franchise history and the longest streak by a team since the Broncos in 2013 (10 games).
- Dak Prescott has scored 17 or more fantasy points in nine straight games, the longest streak in the league and the longest since Tom Brady of last season.
- Prescott has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games after throwing multiple touchdowns once over his first five games.
- Cole Beasley has converted 71.4 percent of his red zone targets for touchdowns, tied with Rishard Matthews for the highest rate of all wide receivers.
- No team faces fewer rushing attempts per game than Dallas at 19.9.
- Opposing teams have called a passing play 70.1 percent of the time in the second half against Dallas and 79.1 percent in the 4th quarter, both the highest rates in the league.
- Jamison Crowder‘s 1.87 points per target leads all wide receivers with 50 or more targets on the season.
- Crowder has double digit points in nine games on the season, trailing only Larry Fitzgerald and Mike Evans (10 each) at the receiver position.
Bust: DeSean Jackson (Dallas has allowed just one 100-yard wide receiver on the season as they’ve limited boundary options), Rob Kelley (you’re going to keep using him, but a one dimensional back that is a big road underdog facing a team that faces the fewest opportunities for how that back scores his points is a neon sign to come in with some trepidation)
Reasonable Return: Dez Bryant (Josh Norman didn’t follow Dez when these teams first faced off, but Bryant is still capable of producing in this matchup and is always a threat near the end zone), Cole Beasley (he’s scored in four of his past six and Washington has been vulnerable to slot receivers), Jason Witten (there’s limited ceiling potential, but Washington has allowed a top-3 tight end in each of their past three games), Kirk Cousins (this game has shootout potential with how efficient both offenses are playing, but the looming potential hangups here are that Dallas negates play volume and Cousins enters as a large road underdog), Jamison Crowder (he’s living off of perceived efficiency that is unsustainable, but we have a large body of work of him doing so and Dallas’ biggest weakness has been interior receivers), Pierre Garcon (he’s been a WR3 or better in three straight and in five of his past six), Jordan Reed (he’s been a top-10 scorer in six of eight games, but has been a top-6 option just twice)
Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis
- The Colts are allowing 419 yards per game at home, the most in the league.
- The Colts allow 28.3 passing yards per drive, the most in the league.
- Opponents have scored on 47.6 percent of their possessions versus the Colts, the second highest rate in the league.
- Albeit both at home, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 886 yards and 10 touchdowns against the Colts over the past two seasons.
- In 19 games on the road over the past three seasons, Roethlisberger has thrown 19 touchdowns to 19 interceptions.
- In 18 home games over the same span, Roethlisberger has thrown 54 touchdowns to 13 interceptions.
- Indianapolis is allowing a league-high 340.6 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks at home this season.
- Antonio Brown leads the league with seven games with seven or more receptions.
- Since returning, Le’Veon Bell has 22.9 percent of the Pittsburgh targets. David Johnson has the next closest share of his team’s targets for a running back over that span at 19.4 percent.
- 38.2 percent of the runs against the Colts have gained five or more yards (31st), while 13.7 percent (31st) have gained 10 or more yards.
- The Steelers are allowing a league low 42.4 percent touchdown rate in the red zone this season while the Colts have a 71.9 percent touchdown rate in the red zone this season, second in the league.
- The Colts averaged 19.5 points and 227 passing yards per game without Andrew Luck last season as opposed to 22.4 points and 268.7 passing yards per game with him active.
- 38.4 percent of Donte Moncrief‘s fantasy output is from touchdown production, second only to Danny Amendola (39 percent) for all wide receivers.
Trust: Ben Roethlisberger (the sample size of his splits on the road are large enough to stock, but the other pro factors in this matchup are overwhelming in his favor to roll him out against one of the worst defenses in the league indoors), Antonio Brown (the best weekly floor and Vontae Davis is injured as icing), Le’Veon Bell (another fantastic matchup for this all-purpose monster)
Bust: T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief (it’s hard to expect either living up to weekly expectations with Scott Tolzien and the Steelers are allowing a touchdown once every 44 targets to opposing wide receivers, the best in the league), Dwayne Allen (he surpassed Jack Doyle as the feature tight end last week, but he’s been a top-20 scorer just twice in seven games), Ladarius Green (he’s played just 20 total snaps since returning, so you’re blindly swinging if using him), Sammie Coates (he’s played just three total snaps the past two weeks)
Reasonable Return: Frank Gore (he’s rushed for only 52 yards per game over the past month, but his floor has remained just as steady as he has double digit points in every game except for one on the season), Eli Rogers (he’s the third target in a game that should feature a larger passing game plan than a week ago)
Los Angeles vs. New Orleans
- Drew Brees leads the league in passing yards at home with 366.4 per game.
- Los Angeles has allowed 266.6 passing yards per game to quarterbacks on the road as opposed to 194.2 per game at home.
- Brees has 18 passing touchdowns inside of the 10-yard line, the most in the NFL. The Rams have 12 pass attempts from inside of the 10-yard line for the season.
- Brees is tied with Aaron Rodgers with seven games of 20 or more points on the season.
- Brandin Cooks has been a top-24 scoring receiver in four of five games at home as opposed to just once in five games on the road.
- The Rams average 1.4 offensive touchdowns per game, last in the league. The Saints average 3.4 offensive touchdowns per game, the most in the league.
- The Rams have scored on just 26.1 percent of their possessions, last in the league.
- Los Angeles has three offensive touchdowns since Week 7, the fewest in the league. They have allowed five touchdowns over those games, also the fewest in the league.
- The Saints have allowed just 3.0 yards per carry over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
Bust: Rams Passing Game (even the NFL version of Coors Field can’t help this passing game that was reluctant to push the downfield in Jared Goff’s first start), Coby Fleener (the Rams are allowing the fourth fewest receptions and the third lowest yardage per game to opposing tight ends)
Reasonable Return: Todd Gurley (the touches will keep being here and he finally broke a long run last week, but still hasn’t been a top-12 scorer in any week this season), Michael Thomas (the best red zone option and has held the most consistent floor of this receiving group), Willie Snead (he’s scored double digit points in three of four games at home), Tim Hightower (if Mark Ingram is out, Hightower is solid RB2 option in a game where the Saints should control throughout. If Ingram is active, then Ingram would be an RB2 with Hightower in play as a flex)
Tennessee vs. Chicago
- The Bears are allowing 279.5 yards per game at home (3rd) as opposed to allowing 380.3 per game on the road (23rd).
- DeMarco Murray has scored double digit points in every game this season, matching David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell at the running back position.
- Murray is tied with Johnson with seven games of 20 or more points on the season.
- Marcus Mariota leads the NFL in touchdowns over the past seven weeks (19), throwing multiple touchdowns in all seven games played game.
- Since Week 5, Rishard Matthews is 24th in targets among wide receivers (46), but 6th in fantasy points.
- Tennessee leads the league in red zone touchdown percentage at 75 percent.
- Chicago has scored on 10 of their past 42 possessions over their past four games (23.8 percent), 31st in the league.
- Jordan Howard‘s 23 runs of 10 or more yards ranks fourth of all running backs and his 17.6 percent rate of 10 plus yard runs trails only Jay Ajayi (19.6 percent) for all players with 75 or more rushing attempts on the season.
Trust: DeMarco Murray (Chicago is allowing the second fewest yards from scrimmage per game to backfields, but Murray has been as steady as any top running back in all components of his offense and Tennessee is expected to remain in positive game script throughout this game), Marcus Mariota (he’s on fire while the Bears have allowed a top-12 scorer in three of their past four and four of their past six games)
Bust: Bears Passing Game (too many injuries and Matt Barkley under center make it hard to latch onto anyone here despite a favorable setup for just about any passing game), Tajae Sharpe (Mariota is hot enough that you can justify swinging as a flex, but in the two games he’s had more than four targets over the past month, Tennessee has chased points all game, something that is unlikely here)
Reasonable Return: Jordan Howard (he’s the only player in this offense you can expect anything from and has 99 yards or more from scrimmage in five of his past six games with double digit touches), Rishard Matthews (it’s doubtful he flirts with double digit targets like last week when the Titans trailed big early, but has been a consistent source for touchdown upside paired with a quarterback throwing a lot of them), Delanie Walker (only one tight end has cleared 50 yards receiving against the Bears, but they have allowed a touchdown to the position in back to back games)
Arizona vs. Atlanta
- Atlanta is averaging 416.6 yards per game, the third most in the league while Arizona is allowing the fewest yards per game in the league (287.4).
- The Falcons have scored a touchdown on 32 percent of their drives, third best in the league. They have also allowed a touchdown on 30.2 percent of their opponent’s drives, the third worst in the league.
- Atlanta allows 2.8 red zone touchdowns per game (32nd) while Arizona allows the fewest at 1.3 per game.
- The Falcons face the most pass attempts per game (41.8) and opposing passers have completed 68.2 percent of their passes, the third highest rate in the league.
- Atlanta allows 1.88 passing points per drive, the most in the league.
- Despite only playing three road games, Carson Palmer‘s seven road interceptions are second to only Ryan Fitzpatrick (nine) on the season.
- Matt Ryan averages 31.5 passing yards per drive, the most in the league.
- The Cardinals allow 17.7 passing yards per drive, the fewest in the league.
- Ryan has faced four defenses in the top half of passing points allowed per attempt and his weekly finishes those weeks have been QB11, QB17, QB18 and QB20.
- Arizona allows the fewest passing points per attempt in the league (.282).
- Arizona is the only team in the league allowing fewer than 100 yards from scrimmage per game to opposing backfields (89 YFS per game).
- David Johnson ranks third in rushing points per game (14.6) and third in receiving points per game (11.0).
Trust: David Johnson (all-purpose stud facing an Atlanta defense that is in the bottom half of rushing and receiving points allowed to opposing backfields)
Bust: Matt Ryan (I don’t want to completely run away from this offense at home with such a high team total, but I see this being a similar type of game that he had versus Denver and Seattle, which is peripheral QB1 expectations), Michael Floyd/John Brown/J.J. Nelson (there’s been zero weekly consistency for this group, but if I had to chase one of them, Floyd had gotten back over 70 percent of the team snaps in each of the past two games), Austin Hooper (no team has allowed fewer yards to opposing tight ends than Arizona and they’ve yet to allow a touchdown to the position), Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (I’d still use either as a lower end RB2, but the only strong fantasy games Arizona has allowed to backs in fantasy are ones in which they compile 20 plus touches, something that will be harder for either back to reach with both active)
Reasonable Return: Julio Jones (Arizona has allowed just one 100-yard receiver on the season and Atlanta has shown they won’t force feed him targets, but he can still get over in any matchup and the last time he squared off against Patrick Peterson he caught all eight of his targets for 171 yards and a touchdown), Carson Palmer (he’s hard to believe in at this point as he’s been inside of the top-15 in just one of his past seven games, but there should be big yardage available here as a starting point no matter how the script plays out), Larry Fitzgerald (his only top-12 weeks over the past eight games have come against San Francisco, but he’s third in targets per game while Atlanta has had trouble defended slot options without moving Desmond Trufant there), Mohamed Sanu (two of his three best games this season have come when Jones is limited by the opposition and Arizona has struggled versus slot receivers, even when Tyrann Mathieu was available)
New York (NFC) vs. Cleveland
- The Browns average 191.7 total yards per game over the past three weeks, fewest in the league.
- Cleveland has scored just 26 points combined the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
- Opponents have scored a touchdown on just 15.3 percent of their drives against the Giants, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Browns have 57 rushing attempts total over their past four games, the fewest in the league.
- The Browns have allowed 24 or more points in 12 consecutive games, the longest streak since 1963.
- The Giants have averaged just 15.8 points per game on the road this season, 30th in the league.
- Eli Manning has averaged 215.8 passing yards per game on the road as opposed to 307.5 per game at home this season.
- Opposing teams have rushed 53.9 percent of the time in the second half against the Browns (the second highest) and 63.8 percent of the their 4th quarter plays, the highest rate in the league.
- New York has rushed for 100 or more yards in back to back games in a season for the first time since 2014.
- Rashad Jennings played 70 percent of the team snaps last week, his highest total since Week 11 of 2014.
- The Giants have scored a touchdown on eight straight red zone possessions.
Trust: Rashad Jennings (he posted season highs in yards from scrimmage and snaps last week while the Browns have allowed six top-15 scorers over their past five games), Eli Manning (the road splits aren’t endearing and neither is the expected cap on passing volume if the Giants cruise, but he’s a solid bet for multiple scoring chances)
Bust: Isaiah Crowell (at least he’s catching some passes now as the Browns aren’t even attempting to run anymore and even if they could, the Giants have allowed 100-yards from scrimmage to just one back all season), Duke Johnson (his floor hasn’t been nearly as good as it was earlier in the season as he’s been the RB33 or lower in four of the past five games), Gary Barnidge (he reached the end zone for the first time this season, but still was held to just 23 yards receiving, the fourth straight game in which he’s been held to fewer than 50 yards while Josh McCown has played significant snaps those weeks)
Reasonable Return: Odell Beckham (we should be more excited about him in this spot, but his road splits have followed Manning’s and the Browns actually haven’t allowed a top-12 receiver over the past four weeks), Sterling Shepard (Cleveland has difficulty stopping any slot receiver that is a part of his offense while Shepard has scored in three straight games), Will Tye (if you’re in need of a waiver play at tight end, Tye has been the TE12 and TE13 over the past two weeks while Cleveland is in the bottom of the league across the board limiting tight end production), Terrelle Pryor (he’s had 25 percent or more of the team targets in five of his past six games and the passing volume will be here weekly from here on out)
San Diego vs. Houston
- San Diego is second in the league in points per play (.440), while Houston ranks 30th (.272)
- Just 24.2 percent of the yards gained against San Diego have come from the ground, the second lowest rate in the league.
- Lamar Miller averages 4.9 yards per carry over his past five games after averaging 3.7 YPC over his first five games.
- 19.5 percent of Philip Rivers‘ pass attempts have come from inside of the red zone, the highest percentage in the league.
- Rivers has not been a top-12 scoring quarterbacks over any of his past five games, his longest streak since 2014.
- 24.6 percent of Antonio Gates‘ targets have come from inside the red zone, the highest rate for all tight ends.
- Gates’ 5.1 yards per target is the lowest for all tight ends with 25 or more targets on the season.
- Melvin Gordon is the first Chargers running back to have 25 or more touches in five straight games since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2004.
- Gordon is the only player to account for over 50 percent of his team’s touches on the season (50.3 percent).
- Houston has allowed just 56 rushing yards per game over their past three games after allowing 135.4 per game over their first seven games.
Trust: Melvin Gordon (he’s a near lock for 20 touches and isn’t coming off the field and while Houston has limited opponents on the ground recently, two of the three teams they’ve faced over that span are at the bottom of the league in rushing)
Bust: Philip Rivers (I believe the streak of weeks outside of the top-12 continues for Rivers as Houston is allowing just 218.7 passing yards per game and they defend the tight end and wide receiver position well), Antonio Gates (you’re playing him for his touchdown appeal but Houston has allowed just two touchdowns to opposing tight ends and over 53 receiving yards to just one), Tyrell Williams (Houston has allowed just three top-20 receivers on the season), DeAndre Hopkins (the last time he hit 75 yards receiving was Week 2 and has been the WR37 or worse in each of the past four weeks)
Reasonable Return: Lamar Miller (the matchup isn’t strong as San Diego is allowing the 6th fewest rushing yards per game, but he was back up to over 40 percent of the team touches last week after three weeks of in and out usage due to injury), C.J. Fiedorowicz (he’s been a top-12 scorer in four of his five and five of his past seven games), Dontrelle Inman (there are better options in his bracket of receivers, but if you’re looking for a solid WR4, Inman has been that over the past month)
Jacksonville vs. Buffalo
- The Bills average 33.5 points per game at home (2nd) as opposed to 19.8 per game on the road (20th).
- Buffalo averages 193.5 rushing yards per game at home, the most in the league.
- 45.9 percent of the Bills’ offensive yardage has come from rushing. They are the only team in the league over 40 percent.
- Jacksonville has allowed just 260.3 yards per game over the past three weeks (second) after allowing 349.3 yards per game over their first seven games.
- Tyrod Taylor averages 18.4 passing yards per drive, the second fewest of all full season starting quarterbacks.
- The Jaguars allow 19.8 passing yards per drive, the fourth fewest in the league.
- Jacksonville is allowing just 9.4 yards per completion, the lowest in the league.
- Blake Bortles‘ 6.3 passing yards per attempt are ahead of only Brock Osweiler (5.7 Y/A) among full season starters.
- Taylor averages 18.5 completions per game (30th) while Bortles averages 16.5 incompletions per game, the most in the league.
- Allen Robinson has just five receptions of 20 yards or more after leading the league with 31 receptions of 20 or more yards in 2015.
Trust: LeSean McCoy (Buffalo hasn’t wavered on his availability this week and the Bills should be able to control this game while stacking rushing output)
Bust: Tyrod Taylor (outside of last week, he was one of the most bankable commodities, so I don’t want to knock him for just one game, but with limited receiving options and Buffalo expected to control script, he just may not have to do much while Jacksonville has been very underrated as a pass defense), Julius Thomas (he has just 146 receiving yards over his past seven games with a high of 28), Sammy Watkins (targets are immediately available for him if he’s active, but I always enter with lowered expectations for players come off of long injury layoffs)
Reasonable Return: Allen Robinson (he’s living off of his red zone ability more than anything, but still carries a heavy target share against a defense allowing the 6th highest yards per target to opposing receivers), Marqise Lee (he’s been a top-30 receiver in four of his past six games, reaching 50 yards in five of them), Chris Ivory (contingent of the status of T.J. Yeldon, Ivory had a season-high 23 touches last week and career highs in receptions and receiving yards)
Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
- Baltimore is allowing just 230.4 yards per game at home this season, the fewest in the league.
- Jeremy Hill has rushed for fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in 18 games over the past two seasons, the most in the league.
- Baltimore allows 3.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs, the second fewest in the league.
- Both Andy Dalton and Joe Flacco have just two games each with multiple touchdown passes, tied with Cam Newton for the fewest on the season for full season starters.
- In four games since 2014 without Green active, Dalton has averaged .8 passing touchdowns per game as opposed to 1.6 per game with Green in the lineup.
- A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard had accounted for 45.9 percent of the team targets and 49.4 percent of the Cincinnati receiving yardage entering Week 10.
- Tyler Boyd had a season-high 20 percent of the team targets last week after receiving 13.6 percent prior.
- Brandon LaFell had 22.5 percent of the team targets, his second largest total on the season.
- Mike Wallace and Steve Smith have accounted for seven of the 10 Baltimore receiving touchdowns.
Trust: Steve Smith (he’s scored in three of his past four full games while being a top-20 receiver in four of his past six)
Bust: Andy Dalton (his yardage has fallen off the past two weeks and he already wasn’t throwing any touchdowns, so losing Green while his best remaining option in Eifert draws a terrible matchup on top of being on the road isn’t something to pursue), Tyler Eifert (there will be weeks to lock onto him going forward as the lead option in the passing game, but Baltimore has smothered tight ends, allowing just one higher than TE18 on the season), Terrance West/Kenneth Dixon (as a whole, I like the spot for the group, but there’s not much stable ground to latch onto as Dixon’s snaps have risen five straight games with just one usable week while West hasn’t finished inside of the top-24 in any of the past four games), Joe Flacco (on a full week of games, his team total is too minuscule while he’s been a top-12 option just twice on the season to reach on him being a starting option)
Reasonable Return: Mike Wallace (he’s been outside of the top-30 just once over his past five games), Jeremy Hill (this isn’t a great matchup on paper and I don’t really care about what Hill did as a rookie without Bernard as he’s been an ineffective player since then and the situation isn’t as strong, but he’s going to get enough volume to put him on the map as an RB2 option and he always holds touchdown upside) , Tyler Boyd/Brandon LaFell (with Eifert likely being the focus in an already tough matchup for him, both should have plenty of opportunity to be useful while Baltimore is allowing a touchdown once every 12.2 targets to opposing wideouts, the third worst rate in the league)
San Francisco vs. Miami
- The Dolphins rank last in the league in pass attempts per game (30.0) while San Francisco ranks 30th (31.2).
- San Francisco has allowed over 400 yards of offense in five straight games, their longest streak since 2005.
- Opposing teams average 4.1 red zone possessions per game against San Francisco, the most in the league.
- San Francisco faces 34.7 rushing attempts per game, the most in the league.
- Miami averages 30.8 rushing attempts per game since Week 6, the third most in the league.
- The 1,795 rushing yards allowed by the 49ers are the most allowed by a team through 10 games since the 1987 Falcons (1,864 rushing yards).
- Jay Ajayi leads the league in percentage of runs that have gone for 10 or more yards (19.6 percent) while San Francisco has allowed the most 10 or more yard runs on the season (45).
- DeVante Parker leads the team in targets (18) over the past two weeks, which is 31.6 percent of the team targets. Parker had 19.1 percent of the team targets in games in which he was active prior.
- Colin Kaepernick has completed 50 of 68 passes (76.9 percent) for 11.0 yards per attempt with six touchdowns in the first half of games this season.
- Kaepernick has completed 36 of 93 passes (52.5 percent) for 4.3 yards per attempt with one touchdown in the second half of games.
Trust: Jay Ajayi (the Dolphins have shredded on the ground over their past three home games against good defenses and San Francisco has allowed over 100-yards from scrimmage to 10 backs on the season)
Bust: 49ers Wide Receivers (the collective group has produced just three top-40 weeks since Kaepernick took over by three different players)
Reasonable Return: Ryan Tannehill (it’s doubtful he has to do real lifting here, but San Francisco has allowed multiple touchdown passes in six of their past seven games), Devante Parker (the Dolphins won’t have to point chase like they’ve had to over the past two weeks, but big wide receivers have done damage to San Francisco all season long), Jarvis Landry (despite being inside of the top-24 once over the past seven games, everyone is in play against the 49ers), Colin Kaepernick (he has 18 or more points in four of his five starts with three consecutive top-10 weeks), Carlos Hyde (his snaps have dropped since returning from injury, but is a safe bet for 15 plus touches), Vance McDonald (he has at least six targets in each of his past four games while Miami has struggled with the athletic tight ends they’ve faced on the season)
Seattle vs. Tampa Bay
- Seattle ranks third in the NFL in points per play over the past three weeks (.515) after ranking 27th through eight weeks (.298).
- Over the past three weeks, Russell Wilson is fourth in points per dropback (.65) after ranking 28th through seven games played.
- Wilson has thrown three or more touchdowns in three consecutive starts in the Eastern Time Zone.
- Tampa Bay is allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt, the second highest in the league.
- 16.9 percent of the plays run against Tampa Bay have come from inside of the red zone, the highest percentage in the league.
- 19.4 percent of the completions against the Buccaneers have gone for 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- Jimmy Graham has the most targets in the league (63) without a target coming from inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line.
- The Seahawks are allowing the fewest points per play in the league (.256).
- 32.3 percent of Doug Martin‘s runs have failed to gain any yardage, the highest rate for all backs with 40 or more carries on the season.
- Cameron Brate‘s average length of touchdown is 4.2 yards, the lowest for all tight ends with multiple touchdowns on the season.
Trust: Russell Wilson (he’s been a top-5 scorer in each of the past three games while Tampa Bay is 26th in passing points allowed per game), Jimmy Graham (despite the lack of looks near the paint, Graham has been excellent and Tampa Bay has allowed big games to higher tiered tight ends in Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce), Doug Baldwin (as Wilson has found his groove, so had Baldwin, finishing as the WR22, WR3 and WR10 over the past three weeks)
Reasonable Return: Thomas Rawls (he’s thrusted back into lead status on an offense hitting its stride while Tampa Bay is allowing the fourth most total yards per game to opposing backfields), Cameron Brate (with Evans being busy with Sherman, Brate will have an opportunity to make some plays against a defense that has allowed top-12 scorers in each of the past two weeks), Doug Martin (the touches will be here to carry his floor while Seattle is allowing 122.2 rushing yards per game over their past four games), Jameis Winston (he has 17 or more points in five straight games and Seattle has allowed 294 passing yards per game over their past six games)
New England vs. New York (AFC)
- Tom Brady averages 2.4 fantasy points per possession, the most in the league.
- Dion Lewis played 27 percent of the team snaps in his return. LeGarrette Blount played 45 percent of the snaps while James White played 31 percent.
- The 45 percent snap share for Blount was his lowest since Week 6.
- Blount played just 12 percent of the snaps in his lone gone versus the Jets last season.
- The Patriots have thrown the ball 70.5 percent of their offensive plays facing the Jets over the past two seasons.
- 33.7 percent of the runs against the Jets have failed to gain any yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- The Jets are last in the league in red zone touchdown rate at 40 percent.
- Brandon Marshall has been held to 70 receiving yards or fewer in five straight games, his longest streak since going six games in 2010.
- The Jets have averaged 151.3 rushing yards per game since Week 7, the most in the league.
- Matt Forte has at least 50 percent of his team’s touches in five games this season, trailing only Melvin Gordon (six) for the most games.
- New England has allowed 4.9 yards per carry over the past three weeks, 30th in the league.
Trust: Tom Brady (he’s thrown multiple scores in five of six games with three or more touchdowns in four), Rob Gronkowski (if he’s good to go, you play him as he still leads all tight ends in receiving since Brady has been back despite having a bye and missing a game)
Bust: LeGarrette Blount (he’s in play for a touchdown every week, but it’s hard to be confident in him being a major part of the game plan this week), Martellus Bennett (he has a high ceiling, but is extremely volatile as he’s been a top-15 scorer just twice since Brady returned), Brandon Marshall (he hasn’t been higher than WR40 in five straight games), Ryan Fitzpatrick (he has one week in the front half of weekly scoring on the season)
Reasonable Return: James White/Dion Lewis (both were flex plays or higher a week ago, and they should be a larger part of the game plan this week), Julian Edelman (he has at least seven targets in every game since Brady returned and has 13 or more points in three straight games), Matt Forte/Bilal Powell (these are the only Jets I’d entertain this week as New York has run the ball while and each have receiving ability when the script inevitably goes south)
Carolina vs. Oakland
- The Panthers have allowed a touchdown on six of 44 drives on defense over their past four games (13.6 percent), the second lowest rate in the league over that span.
- Seven of the nine career touchdowns scored by Amari Cooper have come on receptions over 25 yards.
- Only Drew Brees (11), Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger (10) have more games with three or more touchdown passes over the past two seasons than Derek Carr (nine).
- Carolina is allowing .448 rushing points per attempt to opposing running backs, the second fewest in the league.
- Carolina has rushed for just 69.3 yards per game over the past three weeks after averaging 123.9 rushing yards per game through their first seven games.
- Cam Newton has accounted for 15 total touchdowns through nine games (11 passing, four rushing) after accounting for 21 through nine games played in 2015.
- After averaging 101.7 receiving yards through six games, Greg Olsen has averaged 33.8 yards per game over the past four games, which puts him at 21st for the position over that span.
- 91.7 percent of Jonathan Stewart‘s fantasy production is from rushing production, second to only LeGarrette Blount (95.5 percent).
Trust: Amari Cooper (as Crabtree has become more volatile, Cooper has ramped up consistency as he’s averaged 20.3 points over his past six games with just one week in single digits), Greg Olsen (he’s been quiet for a month, but this is a solid get right spot as the Panthers must score points and Oakland has allowed double digit points to seven tight ends)
Bust: Latavius Murray (Carolina has allowed just two backs to reach 70 rushing yards in a game and four to clear 75 yards from scrimmage), Jonathan Stewart (his floor has shown up recently as he’s been outside of the top-24 in three straight and isn’t involved in the passing game to any degree)
Reasonable Return: Derek Carr (he’s been boom or bust, finishing as the QB8 or higher in six games and the QB20 or lower in four, but Carolina’s improved pass defense has yet to travel as they allow a league-high 360.5 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks on the road), Michael Crabtree (he’s started to become a spotty option, finishing as the WR67 or lower in three of his past five, but the Raiders should skew pass-heavy here and the usage tree is thin), Cam Newton (he’s been a mediocre fantasy option, but has been at his best against teams that lack a pass rush and Oakland is last in the league in sack rate), Kelvin Benjamin (he’s been steady, but steadily lackluster, going for 56-86 yards in six straight while failing to score a touchdown)
Kansas City vs. Denver
- The Chiefs have scored a touchdown on just three of their 31 possessions over the past three weeks (9.7 percent), the second lowest rate in the league.
- Kansas City has scored a touchdown on just two of their 10 red zone possessions over that span, the lowest rate in the league.
- Travis Kelce has never been a top-10 scoring tight end against the Broncos, averaging 52.8 yards per game with zero touchdowns.
- Opposing passers have completed just 50.8 percent of their passes on the road against Denver, the lowest rate in the league.
- After rushing for a season-high 190 yards in Week 7, Denver has rushed for 193 yards combined over their three past games (30th in the league per game).
- Devontae Booker‘s .63 points per touch ranks 39h of the 43 backs with 75 or more touches on the season.
- Demaryius Thomas has 10 or more targets in five straight games, the longest active streak in the league.
- Thomas has 100-yards or a touchdown in seven of his past eight games facing Kansas City.
Bust: Emmanuel Sanders (he’s been a top-40 scorer in one of his past five games with a high week of WR33), Trevor Siemian (he’s been in the top half of weekly scoring just twice), Alex Smith (he’s been in the bottom half of scoring in each of his past four games against Denver and he’s attached to a lowly total on the road), Tyreek Hill/Jeremy Maclin (regardless of Maclin’s availability, the Chiefs receiving unit is an avoid this week)
Reasonable Return: Devontae Booker (he hasn’t been efficient since taking over, but has still been an RB2 in two of the three weeks due to volume and that should be in place again this week as home favorites), Travis Kelce (his history against Denver makes him an uneasy play, but the Broncos linebackers have been exploitable, allowing five top-12 tight ends on the season), Spencer Ware (Denver is allowing the third most yards from scrimmage to opposing backfields, but we’ve seen Ware let us down against a favorable defense in a better spot a week ago)
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia
- The Packers have had fewer than 20 rushing attempts in four straight games, their longest streak as a franchise since 1941.
- Green Bay has thrown the ball 71.5 percent of their offensive plays since Week 6, the second highest rate in the league behind Cleveland (72 percent).
- Over that span, Aaron Rodgers averages 318.2 passing yards per game after averaging 234 passing yards per game prior.
- During the same stretch, the Packers have allowed a touchdown on 37.7 percent of opponent’s drives, the highest rate in the league.
- Green Bay has allowed 30 or more points in four straight games, their longest streak since 1953.
- The Packers are allowing 7.0 yards per play over the past three weeks, the highest in the league.
- Green Bay is allowing the most points per play (.462) in the league.
- Philadelphia allows the fewest points per game (9.5) at home this season.
- After allowing a league best 3.2 yards per carry through six games, the Packers have allowed 4.4 yards per carry (25th) since.
- 73.1 percent of the receiving yards allowed by the Eagles have been to opposing wide receivers, the third highest rate in the league.
Trust: Aaron Rodgers (the matchups are getting tougher, but with the way the Packers are playing offense, Rodgers has become a high floor, high ceiling option), Jordy Nelson (he’s scored in four straight games and the Eagles have allowed a top-12 week to the primary wide receiver in four straight games), Jordan Matthews (he’s the lead option for looks in a great matchup as wide receivers have nine touchdown over the past four games against Green Bay, including slot options such Mohamed Sanu, Jamison Crowder and Kendall Wright)
Bust: James Starks (a pair of receiving touchdowns have carried him the past two weeks, but those aren’t something to rely on weekly as he’s rushed for just 58 yards total), Jared Cook (his addition to the offense was a welcome sign for things to come, but the Eagles have allowed the fewest receptions and second fewest yards to opposing tight ends on the season)
Reasonable Return: Davante Adams/Randall Cobb (the way Green Bay is throwing, you keep playing all the receivers despite a hiccup spot or two along the line and the Eagles have given up usable weeks to both secondary and slots options frequently), Carson Wentz (he was in a similar spot two weeks ago against Atlanta and he didn’t produce, but the matchup couldn’t be better against a defense giving away points at the moment), Zach Ertz (he’s been a top-10 scorer in each of his past three games, seeing 26 targets over that stretch) , Eagles Backfield (with both the status for Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews in the air, it makes things sketchy this early in the week, but if either miss, Wendell Smallwood is in play as a flex plus upside and an RB2 if both miss. If not, it’s business as usual with Sproles as a flex play and Mathews as an option for those chasing touchdowns)
Trust = Set him in your lineups this week
Bust = Player to underperform season average
Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average
**All Vegas Lines are taken from BetUs Tuesday Evenings
Source Article from http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/66922/478/the-nfl-week-12-worksheet