We’re rounding third on the fantasy regular season as many leagues only have another four weeks left before their playoffs begin. Make sure to get all of your Raiders, Lions, Bills and Colts players out of lineups this week.
Let me provide the disclaimer that I encourage you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. You can always cross reference these thoughts with my weekly rankings for further context. With that out of the way, let’s hit all the Week 10 games in a PPR light…
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
- Baltimore averages 2.1 red zone possessions per game, the fewest in the league and allows just 2.1 red zone possessions per game, also the fewest in the league.
- Cleveland is averaging 4.8 rushing yards per carry (3rd), but is averaging 22.0 attempts per game (29th).
- Since allowing 145 rushing yards to the Browns in Week 2, the Ravens have allowed 66.5 yards rushing per game since, the fewest in the league.
- Terrelle Pryor’s scoring weeks in Cody Kessler’s four full games has been WR3, WR20, WR5, and WR18.
- The Browns have allowed 25 or more points in 10 consecutive games, the longest streak since 1981.
- Joe Flacco has thrown a touchdown just once every 56.3 pass attempts, worst in the league.
- The Browns are allowing a touchdown pass once every 13.8 attempts, the highest rate in the league.
- Flacco has completed just 25.9 percent of his passes (15 of 58) 15-yards or further downfield, the lowest in the league for all passers with 25 or more such attempts.
- Mike Wallace has 18.8 percent of the Baltimore receptions, but 29.3 percent of their receiving yardage.
- The Browns have allowed a rushing touchdown in every game except for when they faced the Ravens this season.
Trust: Dennis Pitta (Cleveland is allowing the most receptions and yards per game to opposing tight ends and Pitta already laid a 9-102-0 line on them earlier in the season), Steve Smith (looking at what types of receivers have shredded the Browns, Smith fits that mold the closest), Terrelle Pryor (he’s been a steady WR2 with upside with Kessler under center and Baltimore has allowed seven top-20 receivers)
Bust: Gary Barnidge (Baltimore is in the top-5 in yardage allowed to opposing tight ends and have yet to allow a touchdown to the position), Isaiah Crowell (he’s rushed for 30 yards or fewer in four of his past five games and the Ravens have crushed ground games since these teams first met), Cody Kessler (a short week, road quarterback with a nearly non-existent team total)
Reasonable Return: Joe Flacco (he’s the top streaming option as Cleveland has allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game except for one, but Flacco was also only the QB19 when these team’s previously met), Mike Wallace (he’s the best bet for yards and touchdowns in this passing game and did touch up Cleveland for two scores in the first game, but Cleveland has limited lead options in Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant the past two weeks since Joe Haden has returned), Terrance West/Kenneth Dixon (the script should set up here for Baltimore to finally stack some rushing volume and both players should push double digit touches with West being your best bet at a touchdown), Corey Coleman (he returned and matched Pryor in targets last week while the Ravens have given up chunk plays on the back end), Duke Johnson (holds a weekly flex floor and Baltimore is right around the middle of the pack in terms of receptions allowed to players out of the backfield)
Kansas City vs. Carolina
- Cam Newton has faced four defenses in the top half of passing points per attempt allowed (Kansas City ranks 12th) and his scoring weeks in those games has been QB10, QB19, QB21 and QB18.
- The Panthers have had just one touchdown pass to a wide receiver since Week 5, tied with the Texans and Dolphins for the fewest in the league over that span.
- The Chiefs have allowed just one tight end inside of the top-10 since the start of last season and just four touchdowns to the position, the fewest in the league.
- 44.7 percent of the rushing attempts against the Chiefs have gained five or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- Carolina is tied for the most touchdown receptions allowed from outside of the red zone (nine) on defense and tied for the fewest touchdown passes outside of the red zone on offense (one).
- Alex Smith has completed 74 percent of his passes on throws fewer than 15 yards downfield (4th) and just 28.1 percent on throws 15 yards or further downfield (31st).
Trust: Jonathan Stewart (the Chiefs have only allowed three rushing scores to backs, but are allowing the third highest yards per carry to the position and Stewart has over 60 percent of the team carries in every game since returning), Travis Kelce (he’s the best bet to lead the team in targets and the Panthers have allowed the 4th most yards and third most receiving scores to opposing tight ends)
Bust: Greg Olsen (you’re still running him out at his position, but the Chiefs dampen the outlook for all tight ends), Cam Newton (this isn’t as poor as the tougher matchups he’s faced on the season, but I still see him producing lower end QB1 type of numbers here than a ceiling game), Jeremy Maclin (he was already an unreliable option and now his health in jeopardy), Spencer Ware/Charcandrick West (whoever leads the backfield this week will have to do their damage through the air as Carolina has allowed the third fewest rushing yards to backs and the second lowest yards per carry at 3.38 yards)
Reasonable Return: Kelvin Benjamin (he has over 70-yards receiving in four straight, but hasn’t been able to find the paint, something that could change as the Chiefs have allowed 10 touchdown receptions to receivers on the season), Alex Smith (expected to be back this week, four of the past five quarterbacks to face Carolina have been in the top half of scoring)
Denver vs. New Orleans
- Drew Brees averages 30.3 completions per game, the most in the league. Denver allows 19.1 completions per game, 31st in the league.
- The Broncos are allowing just 8.9 passing points per game, the second fewest in the league behind Arizona (8.7).
- Denver is allowing 4.9 adjusted yards per pass attempt, the lowest in the league.
- Since their Week 5 bye, the Saints wide receiver targets have been 33 for Willie Snead, 32 for Michael Thomas and 30 for Brandin Cooks.
- Tim Hightower played 42 percent of the snaps and had 52 percent of the backfield touches in Week 9.
- Mark Ingram played 38 percent of the snaps and handled 37 percent of the backfield touches.
- Denver ranks 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (128.6) after ranking first in 2015 (83.4).
- The Broncos are allowing 158.1 yards from scrimmage to opposing running backs, the third most in the league.
- The Saints are allowing 309.8 passing yards per game to opposing passers, the most in the league. Denver is allowing the fewest in the league at 200.3.
- 53.9 percent of the completions against the Saints have gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
Trust: Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius Thomas (neither player has been a top-20 scorer over the past four games as they’ve found the end zone just once combined over that stretch, but both are pushing double digit targets weekly and there will be scoring opportunities here)
Bust: Drew Brees (I’m still comfortable using Brees anywhere that I have him and would expect something a little higher than what Matt Ryan did against the Broncos as a probable return, but that’s still underneath the expectation levels that Brees has put in place), Willie Snead (he should find Chris Harris the most often of the receivers), Coby Fleener (he’s played fewer than 35 percent of the team snaps in each of the past two weeks)
Reasonable Return: Michael Thomas (he should be the one who matches up with Bradley Roby the most often on the left side of the offense and is the best red zone option of the trio), Brandin Cooks (he splits his time fairly equally at all of the receiver positions, so he should find opportunity to make some plays in the coverage of Roby or Lorenzo Doss), Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower (the results won’t be what they were last week, but this is another game in which both players can be effective RB2 types if splitting opportunities), Trevor Siemian (he’s a solid streaming option if you can’t land Flacco off waivers as six of the eight quarterbacks to face New Orleans have been top-10 scorers), Devontae Booker (seeing the Denver run game struggle last week against an Oakland front that was run on by everyone prior doesn’t invoke a lot of confidence in this matchup alone carrying weight, but the Saints have been bludgeoned by combo backs all season long)
Los Angeles vs. New York (AFC)
- The Jets have converted just 38.2 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns, 31st in the league (Houston is 32nd at 38.1 percent).
- New York has averaged 16 pass completions per game over the past three weeks, the fewest in the league.
- Just 10.9 percent of Brandon Marshall‘s fantasy output has come from touchdown receptions after 24.8 percent in 2015.
- Marshall is tied with Sterling Shepard for the most games this season with seven or more targets and 50 or fewer receiving yards with four.
- After averaging 206.3 passing yards per game through four weeks (28th), Case Keenum is averaging 294.8 passing yards per game (6th) since.
- Just 23.4 percent of Tavon Austin‘s targets have resulted in a first down, the lowest rate for any wide receiver in the league.
- 52.1 percent of Kenny Britt‘s targets have resulted in a first down, the 6th highest for all wide receivers.
- Lance Kendricks leads the Rams in targets over their past three games with 29 (22.3 percent of the team targets), seeing eight or more in each game.
- Todd Gurley is averaging just 13.7 rushing attempts over his past three games with a high of 15 after averaging 21 attempts per game with a low of 17 attempts through the first five weeks.
- 23.9 percent of Gurley’s carries have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate for all backs with 60 or more carries on the season.
- Just 4.5 percent of Gurley’s carries have gained 10 or more yards, ahead of only Matt Asiata (2,8 percent) from the same group.
Bust: Matt Forte (he’s been a top-10 back three weeks in a row, but the Rams have allowed just two top-10 backs on the season and are allowing the 5th fewest yards from scrimmage to the position), Brandon Marshall (he hasn’t been inside of the top-40 four weeks running and it attached to quarterback play that is trending downwards), Case Keenum (the yards have been there, but the fantasy results haven’t followed as he’s been inside of the top half of scoring just once over the past four weeks), Tavon Austin (despite the Rams increased passing output, he’s had fewer than five targets in two of the past three weeks and has topped 60-yards receiving just once on the season), Quincy Enunwa (he’s cleared five targets in just one of his past four games as this passing game is on life support), Ryan Fitzpatrick (he hasn’t finished in the top half of weekly scoring since Week 2 while the Rams have allowed just two quarterbacks to finish better than QB15 on the season)
Reasonable Return: Todd Gurley (we’re long past expecting RB1 returns from Gurley, but he’s still been a top-24 scorer in six straight games and this matchup sets up similarly to the one he had a week ago when he was the RB17), Kenny Britt (the Jets have surrendered their share of splash plays this season and Britt has been a top-36 option in five of eight games), Lance Kendricks (he’s been a top-10 scorer in each of the past three games)
Green Bay vs. Tennessee
- The Titans average 4.0 offensive touchdowns per game over the past five weeks, the second highest total per game in the league behind New England (4.3) over that span.
- Tennessee has scored 26 or more points in five straight games for the first time since 2003.
- Over that span, Marcus Mariota leads all quarterbacks in fantasy scoring and is third in points per game (24.2) behind only Drew Brees (25.7) and Tom Brady (26.3).
- Mariota has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five straight games, the longest streak by a Titans quarterback since Billy Volek in 2004.
- Rishard Matthews has played 88 and 89 percent of the team snaps the past two weeks after having a season high of 66 percent over the first seven games of the season.
- Green Bay is allowing 1.9 points per target to opposing wide receivers, the fourth highest in the league.
- DeMarco Murray is averaging 5.4 yards per carry on perimeter runs (off of either tackle or edge) as opposed to 3.9 yards per carry on interior runs (guard to guard).
- The Packers are allowing 3.35 yards per carry to opposing running backs, the fewest in the league.
- After averaging 219 passing yards per game over his first four games, Aaron Rodgers has averaged 290.8 since.
- The Packers have thrown the ball on 70.4 percent of their offensive plays the past three weeks (second highest) after passing the ball 59.7 percent of the time Weeks 1-6.
- The Packers haven’t scored a rushing touchdown in six games, the longest streak in the league.
- Tennessee has allowed eight different receivers to top 17 points in a game, tied for the second most in the league.
Trust: Marcus Mariota (overall play volume is a concern here as the Packers are limiting opposing possessions, but I’ve expected some regression the past few weeks for Mariota during some middling matchups and he’s remained hot while this week’s matchup is a lot more favorable than his past two), Aaron Rodgers (he’s been a top-5 scorer in each of the past three weeks as we’re no longer worried about his inefficiency being a problem with the immense volume he’s stacking weekly), Jordy Nelson (after a small dip in output, he’s bounced back with 22 targets the past two weeks and is second in the league in touchdown receptions)
Bust: Richard Rodgers (he had 10 targets last week after seeing 17 all season prior, which very likely was dictated by the matchup against the Colts, but if you’re extremely thin and chasing a touchdown, the Titans have allowed a tight end to score in three straight games)
Reasonable Return: DeMarco Murray (even in a tough draw on paper for production on the ground, he has scoring and receiving upside weekly to hold a floor), Rishard Matthews (he’s living a bit off of touchdown production, but he has the safest footing in the receiving unit and the Green Bay secondary has been ineffective from an efficiency standpoint), Delanie Walker (he’s played through a number of injuries on the season already, but has still been a TE1 in three straight), Ty Montgomery/Randall Cobb/Davante Adams (there’s enough weekly usage here for the entire group to keep holding a solid floor as the Packers have had three or more receivers score double digit points in three straight games)
Atlanta vs. Philadelphia
- The Falcons are the only team in the league to score over 21 points in every game this season.
- Atlanta has had 11 different offensive skill players score a touchdown this season, the most in the league.
- Matt Ryan‘s 9.5 yards per attempt are the third highest in NFL history through nine games played, trailing Kurt Warner in 2000 (10.6 Y/A) and Aaron Rodgers in 2011 (9.7 Y/A).
- After allowing no passing touchdowns through three weeks, the Eagles have allowed 12 since, tied for the most in the league.
- Devonta Freeman has 32.1 percent of the team touches over the past two weeks with Tevin Coleman absent after averaging 36.8 percent of the team touches over the first seven weeks of the season.
- Carson Wentz has scored 52.3 fantasy points over his past five games after scoring 52.9 through his first three.
- Wentz averages 12.7 passing points per game (22nd) while Atlanta allows 21.1 passing points per game, the most in the league.
- Zach Ertz had 17 percent of the team targets in Week 9, his highest total since Week 1. He had just 10.3 percent of the team targets come his way over the four games prior.
Trust: Matt Ryan (the Eagles have allowed multiple touchdown passes in four of their five games since the bye while Ryan remains the hottest quarterback in the league), Julio Jones (as mentioned last week, the Eagles have good overall numbers versus receivers, but alpha receivers have gotten over on them for WR1 lines and Jones is as good as they come), Devonta Freeman (his usage hasn’t taken a large spike since Tevin Coleman has been out, but the Eagles have allowed a top-10 back in three of five games since their bye, limiting only the Minnesota and Giants’ backs from production, two of the worst collective backfields in the league)
Bust: Ryan Mathews (even with a touchdown in three straight games, he’s yet to crack the top-24 in any of those weeks), Jacob Tamme/Austin Hooper (only Arizona has allowed fewer receiving yards to opposing tight ends than the Eagles)
Reasonable Return: Carson Wentz (he’s been a nightmare since his hot start, but he should be forced to match points in this game while Atlanta hasn’t been much of a speed bump for opposing passers in relation to fantasy output and Vegas is suggesting those things will take place), Darren Sproles (he’s taken over as the lead back and no team has allowed more receiving points to backfields than the Falcons), Jordan Matthews (with Desmond Trufant banged up and questionable heading into the week, Matthews is the main target in a passing game that should put points on the board), Zach Ertz (this feels like chasing last week’s points, but Atlanta has allowed seven top-12 scoring weeks to opposing tight ends, tied for the most in the league)
Minnesota vs. Washington
- Washington averages 410.2 yards of offense per game (4th) while Minnesota allows 298.9 yards per game (3rd) to opponents.
- Washington averages 6.2 yards per play on offense, second to Atlanta (6.8) on the season.
- Jamison Crowder is the first Washington receiver to have back to back 100-yard receiving games since 2014.
- The Vikings have rushed for 100 yards as a team just once this season, the fewest in the league.
- Minnesota is averaging a league-low 2.7 yards per carry while Washington is allowing 4.9 yards per rushing attempt (31st).
- Per Pro Football Focus, Stefon Diggs‘ average depth of target (aDOT) was 3.0 yards in Week 9 after being 11.1 yards on the season prior.
- 28.3 percent of the receiving yardage allowed by the Vikings has been to opposing tight ends, the highest share in the league.
- Just 50.3 percent of the receiving yardage allowed by Minnesota is to opposing wide receivers, the second lowest in the league behind Denver (49.9 percent).
Trust: Jordan Reed (despite the Vikings not allowing an opposing tight end to score yet, they’re in the bottom -10 in receptions and yardage allowed to the position and have allowed a top-10 scorer in back to back weeks)
Bust: Kirk Cousins (even with the Vikings not looking as invincible as they were early in the season, they’ve still yet to allowed any quarterback to finish higher than QB15 on the season), Minnesota Running Backs (Washington is a team to target on the ground, but with Ronnie Hillman now involved, an already undesirable group becomes less appealing for latching onto individual production. If you have to throw a dart here, it would be on Matt Asiata getting a short scoring opportunity), Sam Bradford (Washington hasn’t allowed multiple touchdown passes in a game since Week 1), Rob Kelley (all indications are that he’ll be the first in line again, but Minnesota has allowed just one back to eclipse 70 rushing yards in a game and he offers almost no receiving upside), DeSean Jackson (he hasn’t been a top-40 scorer since Week 3 and the Vikings have smothered vertical playmakers), Jamison Crowder (there’s an opportunity for him to produce in the fashion of Golden Tate last week, but the Vikings have allowed just four top-24 receivers on the season and haven’t allowed any to reach 80-yards in a game to date)
Reasonable Return: Stefon Diggs (if the offensive coordinator change results in him producing Jarvis Landry-like lines from here on out, we’ll be just fine with that), Chris Thompson (he’s been outside of the top-30 just once on the season), Kyle Rudolph (he had a season low three targets in a dream matchup a week ago, so it’s worth monitoring his involvement here post coordinator change, but he remains the best red zone option on the team and Washington have allowed four top-12 tight ends over the past five weeks)
Houston vs. Jacksonville
- Houston is last in the NFL in points per play (.258), while Jacksonville ranks 29th (.297).
- The Texans average 1.4 offensive touchdowns per game, the fewest in the league.
- Houston has had just four different skill players score a touchdown on the season, the fewest in the league.
- Brock Osweiler‘s 5.8 yards per attempt are last in the NFL.
- Jacksonville is allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt, the 4th lowest in the league.
- Jacksonville has been outscored by opponents 128-54 in the first half this season, the largest differential in the league.
- 46.3 percent of Blake Bortles‘ fantasy output has come during the 4th Quarter, the highest rate of any quarterback in the league.
- The Texans are allowing 203.4 passing yards per game to opposing passers, the second fewest in the league behind Denver (200.3).
- Houston has allowed one top-20 scoring wide receiver on the season, tied with Denver for the fewest in the league.
Bust: Blake Bortles (he’s had back to back QB1 games, but Houston has allowed just two top-12 scorers on the season), Allen Robinson (just keep playing him as there’s nothing in his way for double digit targets weekly and hope he finds the end zone like last week, but Houston has limited opposing counting stats in the passing game), Brock Osweiler (he’s yet to have a week higher than QB16), Will Fuller (his ceiling has been mushed by Osweiler’s inability to successfully get the ball downfield and Jacksonville isn’t allowing many splash plays on the back end), DeAndre Hopkins (he’s in almost an identical spot as his counterpart in Allen Robinson as he’s eclipsed 75 yards just once on the season and Houston shouldn’t have to force the pass), Julius Thomas (he hasn’t had more than receptions in a game since Week 2 while Houston has allowed just two top-12 scoring tight ends), Marqise Lee (there’s a path to flex status here withthe status of Allen Hurns in question for those thin this week, but Houston has smothered receivier production to the point where I’d rather pursue a floor play elsewhere)
Reasonable Return: Lamar Miller (he’s been far from electric, but he’s averaging 21.8 touches per game and the Jaguars have allowed a rushing score in four of their past five), Chris Ivory (last week was the first time he surpassed 50 rushing yards in any game this season, but if there’s a game where an opponent won’t completely pull away from the Jags, it’s this one), T.J. Yeldon (doubling down on the Jaguar backs here, Yeldon has been a top-30 scorer in back to back games as he’s been reincorporated into the passing game, something that should hold up here as Houston defends receivers so well), C.J. Fiedorowicz (he’s actually been the most dependable player in this passing game as he’s been a top-12 scorer in four of his past five games and in three straight)
Chicago vs. Tampa Bay
- After allowing 142.7 rushing yards per game through three weeks (30th), the Bears have allowed 75.6 since, the third fewest per game in the league.
- Chicago is the only team in the league that has yet to score three offensive touchdowns in a game this season.
- 20.9 percent of the completions against Tampa Bay have gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- Tampa Bay is allowing the second most passing yards per attempt (8.3 yards) and second most passing points per attempt (.555), trailing only Cleveland in both categories.
- 16.2 percent of Jordan Howard‘s carries have gained 10 or more yards, the second highest of all backs with 75 or more carries on the season.
- 26.3 percent of Howard’s runs have gained zero yards or lost yardage, the third highest rate of the same group.
- Zach Miller has accounted for 21.3 percent of the Chicago receptions, the third highest share of his team’s receptions for any tight end in the league.
- Mike Evans leads the league with six games of having over 30 percent of his team’s targets and has had over 30 percent of the team targets in five straight games.
- Chicago allows the most receptions per game (16.8) and receiving yardage per game (195 yards) to opposing wide receiving units.
Trust: Mike Evans (things sound promising on him clearing concussion protocol and he’s the best weekly source for volume and touchdown upside at the position), Alshon Jeffery (he’s had at least 25 percent of the team targets in three straight while Tampa Bay has allowed seven top-12 scoring receivers on the season)
Bust: Peyton Barber (Chicago hasn’t allowed a top-20 back since Week 3), Cameron Brate (I keep placing him here because he’s not seeing any targets or producing yardage, but he keeps saving games with late touchdowns, which will inevitably run dry)
Reasonable Return: Jameis Winston (this game may not feature a lot of scoring, but the matchup isn’t daunting and Winston has attachment to Evans), Jay Cutler (Tampa Bay is a prime target for weekly passing production, so cutler is in play for streaming purposes, the only concern here is overall play volume), Jordan Howard (I’m still not completely sold that we can trust Howard week to week and Tampa Bay has allowed just two backs to rush for 80-yards in a game this season, but he did have 90 percent of the rushing attempts prior to the bye and we expect the passing game to do well, which can create scoring opportunities), Zach Miller (Tampa has allowed a top-12 tight end in three of their past four games), Cameron Mededith (his hype has cooled down, but I’m ok going back to him if you need a wideout as Tampa Bay has allowed multiple receivers to be top-30 scorers in the same game six times this season)
Miami vs. San Diego
- Jay Ajayi is the first Miami running back to rush for 100-yards in three straight games since Reggie Bush in 2011.
- Ajayi is second in the league with 24 carries of 10 or more yards, trailing Ezekiel Elliott (27), who has 69 more carries on the season.
- The Chargers have allowed 100-yards rushing to an opposing team just once on the season, tied with the Packers for the fewest in the league.
- San Diego has allowed multiple rushing touchdowns in five games, the most in the league.
- Miami has run the football on 55.3 percent of their plays over their past three games after rushing 34.5 percent of the time prior.
- Over the past five weeks, Ryan Tannehill averages 25.6 pass attempts per game, ahead of only Cody Kessler (25.4).
- Through four weeks, Jarvis Landry averaged 11.3 targets per game, tied for second at the wide receiver position. Since then, he averages 6.5 per game (38th).
- Melvin Gordon leads the league in red zone rushing attempts (45), attempts inside of the 10-yard line (23) and attempts inside of the 5-yard line (14).
- 34.5 percent of Gordon’s runs the past two weeks (19 of 55) have gained five or more yards after just 23.2 percent of his runs Weeks 1-7 (32 of 138) gained five or more yards (second to last).
- 27.1 percent of Antonio Gates‘ targets have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate of all tight ends in the league (min. 40 targets on the season).
- Just 10.8 percent of the rushing attempts against the Dolphins have been from inside the red zone, the second lowest in the league (Baltimore, 9.9 percent).
- After allowing 289.3 passing yards per game over their opening four games (24th), the Dolphins are allowing 196.3 passing yards per game since, fewest in the league.
Trust: Jay Ajayi (he’s running as hot as any back and although the Chargers have limited overall yardage, they’ve allowed a plethora of rushing scores), Melvin Gordon (he’s really ramped up his efficiency the past two weeks, has 27 plus touches in four straight games and is a home back attached to a high team total), Tyrell Williams (outside of his two games versus Denver, his past three weekly finishes have been WR11, WR13 and WR14)
Bust: Ryan Tannehill (he’s scored above QB25 just once over his past five games), Jarvis Landry (he should definitely get more than three targets this week, but his fantasy game is predicated on volume as he’s been a top-24 scorer in just one of his past five games while the best receiving games against San Diego have come from vertical playmakers)
Reasonable Return: Antonio Gates (I’ve been fighting the fantasy relevancy of Gates recently, but he’s tied or led the team in targets in three straight games and has weekly touchdown upside at a fantasy position driven by touchdown production), Philip Rivers (Miami has improved all-around on defense, which is a byproduct of the climate change they’ve experienced on offense and Rivers hasn’t been a top-12 scorer since Week 5, but it’s hard to run completely away from a high totaled, home favorite), Dontrelle Inman (he’s flirted with flex floor play production the past three weeks and Travis Benjamin should finally be held out completely with a Week 11 bye on the horizon, freeing up opportunity)
San Francisco vs. Arizona
- The 49ers are the first team to ever allow seven different 100-yard rushers in seven consecutive games.
- San Francisco is the first team to allow 170 or more rushing yards in five consecutive games since 1988.
- The 1,544 rushing yards allowed by the 49ers this season are the most through eight games since the 1978 Colts (1,650 yards).
- San Francisco is allowing 6.3 yards per carry on runs off either tackle or edge (32nd) and are allowing 5.1 yards per carry on interior runs (guard to guard), 31st in the league.
- David Johnson has accounted for 35.3 percent of the Arizona offensive yardage, the highest share for any player in the league.
- Just 6.8 percent of the pass attempts against the Cardinals have come from inside of the red zone, the fewest in the league.
- Arizona is allowing 3.1 sacks per game (30th) after allowing 1.8 per game (6th) in 2015.
- Larry Fitzgerald is the only receiver other than Mike Evans to have double digit points in every game this season.
Trust: David Johnson (fire emoji), Larry Fitzgerald (he not only has the best floor in this passing game, but has the best touchdown upside as well and the 49ers have allowed multiple touchdown passes to four different receivers, including Fitzgerald earlier in the season), Carson Palmer (the 49ers have allowed multiple touchdown passes in every game since Week 1)
Bust: Colin Keapernick (he’s coming off the second-best passing yardage game of his career to face the team allowing the fewest passing points per game on the road off a bye)
Reasonable Return: J.J. Nelson (he’s had the second highest snap share after Fitzgerald in each of their past two games in route to WR36 and WR2 weeks), John Brown (he’s now third in line, but everyone is play here against San Francisco), DuJuan Harris (at this point, Carlos Hyde’s availability this week is still vague at best and Harris played 88 percent of the snaps last week and handled 15 of the 18 backfield touches)
Dallas vs. Pittsburgh
- The Steelers rank 17th in points per play (.358) after ranking 6th in 2015 (.401).
- Pittsburgh averages just 18.7 rushing attempts per game over their past three games, the fewest in the league.
- Dallas faces the fewest rushing attempts per game in the league (20.5).
- Le’Veon Bell has the most touches in the league without a touchdown (119).
- 24.7 percent of Ben Roethlisberger‘s pass attempts are 15 yards or further downfield, the highest rate in the league.
- Just 10.3 percent of the completions allowed by the Cowboys have gained 20 or more yards, lowest rate in the league.
- 50.5 percent of Roethlisberger’s fantasy output has come from passing touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
- Ezekiel Elliott has scored the second most fantasy points for a rookie back through eight games since Adrian Peterson in 2007.
- Dez Bryant has caught just 39 percent of his targets, the lowest rate of all receivers with 40 or more targets on the season.
- Dak Prescott has completed 72.6 percent of his targeted passes to everyone else other than Bryant.
- Cole Beasley‘s 1.83 points per target trails only Julio Jones (1.88) for all wide receivers with 50 or more targets on the season.
- Pittsburgh is allowing a touchdown once every 44 targets to opposing wide receivers, second best in the league to only Denver (once every 83 targets).
Trust: Le’Veon Bell (despite the lack of touchdowns, he’s still a premier option due to his all-purpose ability as his lowest weekly finish has been RB14), Antonio Brown (Dallas has been strong versus lead boundary receivers, but Brown has such a high floor and he’s scored or had 100-yards in eight of his past nine home games), Ezekiel Elliott (he’s been held under 100-yards in each of the past two games and has still been a top-10 scorer each week)
Bust: Sammie Coates (over the past three games he’s reeled in just one his past 10 targets for four yards and Dallas has allowed just three receptions of 40 plus yards), Jason Witten (32 percent of his receiving yards on the season came last week after failing to reach 70 yards in 17 games prior)
Reasonable Return: Ben Roethlisberger (Ben is always in play at home, but Dallas’ ball control ways have limited ceiling production as they’ve allowed just one top-10 quarterback all season), Eli Rogers (he had 22 percent of the team targets out of the bye and Dallas has struggled versus slot options), Dak Prescott (he has 17 or more points in seven straight games while the Steelers have allowed 17 points to an opposing passer in just one of the past four games), Dez Bryant (his targets have been a roller coaster and the Steelers have allowed just three top-20 receivers on the season), Cole Beasley (he’s had one of the best floors at the position as he has over 50 yards receiving in every game this season)
Seattle vs. New England
- New England is averaging 3.2 touchdowns per game (4th) while Seattle is allowing 1.5 touchdowns to opposing offenses (31st).
- Since Tom Brady returned, Rob Gronkowski is leading the league in receiving yards per game (118.3).
- 45.5 percent of Gronkowski’s receptions have gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league (min. 20 receptions).
- Brady has thrown a touchdown once every 11. 2 pass attempts, the best in the league.
- After allowing 7.1 passing points per game to opposing quarterbacks through four games, the Seahawks are allowing 16.3 per game over their past four games.
- LeGarrette Blount has a touchdown in seven games this season, tied with DeMarco Murray and Melvin Gordon for the league lead.
- 77.3 percent of the Seattle offensive yardage has come from passing, the second highest in the league behind the Giants (79.9 percent).
- Jimmy Graham has accounted for 24.8 percent of the Seattle receiving yardage (second highest among tight ends) while Gronkowski has accounted for 21.9 percent (third).
Trust: Rob Gronkowski (he’s gone over 90 yards in every game since Brady has been back and while Seattle has been strong versus tight ends, they have yet to face a top-10 one on the season), Tom Brady (Brady has thrown multiple touchdowns in 17 of his past 20 games since the start of last season while the Seahawks have allowed 20 or more points to three of the past four quarterbacks they’ve faced)
Bust: Julian Edelman (he’s averaged 8.8 targets per game with Brady back, but it has resulted in just 40.5 yards per game with no top-24 weeks), Russell Wilson (he’s coming off his best game of the season, but he’s still not stacking rushing production and the Patriots have only allowed two top-10 quarterbacks and multiple passing touchdowns in just two games), Christine Michael (his snaps and touches have dropped for three consecutive weeks as he’s been the RB31, RB26 and RB31), James White/Dion Lewis (if Lewis remains inactive, then bump White up to flex status as he’s been outside of the top-30 in just one of his past five games, but if Lewis is back, they likely split opportunities in the role until Lewis is a full go)
Reasonable Return: LeGarrette Blount (he’s always in play for a touchdown and Seattle has allowed over 120 rushing yards in three straight games), Doug Baldwin (he’s had more than six targets in just one of his past five games and hasn’t been a top-20 receiver since Week 3, but the Patriots have allowed top-10 weeks to primary slot men in Larry Fitzgerald and Jarvis Landry), Jimmy Graham (he’s been a top-10 scorer in five of his past six games and he leads the team in targets since Week 3)
Cincinnati vs. New York (NFC)
- After rushing for 80.8 yards per game over their opening four games, the Bengals have rushed for 159.8 yards since.
- A.J. Green has accounted for 38.1 percent of the Cincinnati receiving yardage, the highest share in the league.
- Tyler Eifert played 84 percent of the team snaps prior to the bye and matched a career-high 12 targets.
- The Giants face the most targets per game to opposing tight ends (9.5) and allow the third most receptions per game (6.1) to opposing tight ends.
- Andy Dalton has just a 3.1 percent touchdown rate on the season. His career average entering this season is 4.9 percent.
- New York is allowing a touchdown pass once every 50.6 pass attempts (3rd) after allowing a touchdown pass once every 20.6 passes in 2015.
- The Giants face the most pass attempts per game (44.3) and rank fourth in the league in passing points per attempt allowed (.294).
- The Giants have rushed for fewer than 80 yards as a team in five consecutive games, the longest streak in franchise history since 1935.
- Rashad Jennings played 58 percent of the team snaps, his highest total of the season. Paul Perkins played 34 percent of the snaps, his highest total of the season.
- Eli Manning has thrown for 344.5 yards per game in his four starts at home this season as opposed to 215.8 per game on the road.
Trust: Eli Manning (he’s been hot at home and the Bengals have allowed a top-12 quarterback in six of their past seven games), Odell Beckham (as Eli has gone at home, so has Beckham, scoring 16 or more points in every game at home this season), Tyler Eifert (we knew this offense was starved for a second option in the passing game and in the red zone and we saw the dividends immediately when Eifert was allotted a full snap count while the Giants are a favorable matchup as icing), A.J. Green (he leads the league in receiving yardage per game while the Giants have allowed 88-yards or more to a receiver in three straight games)
Bust: Rashad Jennings/Paul Perkins (the sum of this backfield altogether is barely an RB2, so the split here puts either on the board as a hopeful flex play only), Sterling Shepard (last week was the first time he’s hit double digit points since Week 3, which is also the last time he’s surpassed 50 yards receiving), Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard (the Giants have allowed just two top-20 backs on the season and no back to hit 90-yards on the ground in a game while allowing more than four receptions to just one)
Reasonable Return: Andy Dalton (a player with underperforming touchdown output facing a defense capping passing touchdown output isn’t the cocktail for high-end fantasy output, but Dalton has still managed to be a top-12 scorer in four straight games with three of those coming in subpar matchups)
Trust = Set him in your lineups this week
Bust = Player to underperform season average
Reasonable Return = On par with seasonal average
**All Vegas Lines are taken from BetUs Tuesday Evenings
Source Article from http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/66466/478/the-nfl-week-10-worksheet