The QB2 by average points, Matt Ryan is splitting the difference between his MVP 2016 and frustrating 2017. Ryan is averaging 8.54 yards per attempt while completing an eye-popping 71.1 percent of his throws. His touchdown percentage is a sturdy 5.8 while his interception percentage is a career-low 0.8. He has cleared 330 yards in four-straight starts and 270 every game since Week 2. Ryan is taking advantage of his fully stocked supporting cast.
For Week 11, Ryan gets a Cowboys defense that’s sprung some leaks since its Week 8 bye. At home where he’s averaging 360 yards and three touchdowns, Ryan will not be slowed by Big D.
Week 11 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: Playing MVP football, Patrick Mahomes is averaging over three touchdowns per start. The Rams’ struggling defense has coughed up seven passing scores on just 62 attempts (11.29 percent) over the past two weeks. … Opposing Mahomes will be Jared Goff, who is averaging a gaudy 9.44 yards per attempt and has turned in four-straight multi-score starts. Cooper Kupp’s loss will hurt, but Goff remained an elite fantasy option during Kupp’s earlier two-game absence. The Chiefs’ recent improvement on defense has coincided with a soft slate of opposing passers. … Despite allowing the league’s eighth-fewest weekly passing yards, the Lions are getting smashed for an 8.9 YPA. Only the Raiders are silver plattering more yards each time the opposing quarterback passes. With D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel more involved in recent weeks, Cam Newton will have ample opportunity to hit big plays. … Drew Brees returns to the Superdome, where he is averaging 348 yards across four starts. Brees should pick apart the Eagles’ leaky secondary, but he could face some harassment from Jim Schwartz‘s front seven. Sacked just nine times through his first nine games, Brees will be missing LT Terron Armstead (shoulder).
Opposing Brees will be Carson Wentz, whose recent dominance has gone somewhat unnoticed thanks to the Eagles’ uneven play. Wentz has posted multiple scores in six-straight starts and is averaging 8.39 yards per attempt while completing 74.1 percent of his passes over his past four games. The Saints are permitting the second-most quarterback fantasy points. … Having a bit of a weird season thanks in part to supporting cast injuries, Aaron Rodgers has a tough road matchup in a Seahawks defense allowing the third-fewest signal caller fantasy points. Heating up with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rodgers needs to get on the same page with new No. 3 receiver Equanimeous St. Brown. … Colts point guard Andrew Luck has posted at least three scores in six-straight games, becoming just the fourth player in league history to do so. That amazing streak will be put to the test against the Titans’ white-hot defense. … Few players needed a Week 10 bye more than Deshaun Watson, who entered the open date supremely banged up. Will Fuller’s absence could loom large down the stretch, but Watson’s receiver corps is still three deep following the acquisition of Demaryius Thomas. Watson remains capable of winning a fantasy week any time he takes the field.
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Ben Roethlisberger is good for at least one completely bonkers performance per year. He had it in Week 10. He will try to follow is up against a Jaguars defense that’s still allowing the league’s fewest passing yards but looking much more mortal than a season ago. Ben shredded the Jags for five touchdowns and 469 yards in last year’s Divisional Round. … Getting a hot streak going with Allen Robinson would add a different dimension to Mitchell Trubisky’s fantasy value. Week 11 opponent Minnesota remains stingy through the air. Trubisky had been a in two-week lull before last Sunday’s pantsing of the Lions. … Even with coach Dirk Koetter taking over play-calling duties, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a 406-yard day against the Redskins. The problem is he didn’t find the end zone. With weapons out the wazoo, Fitz should remain “fantasy hot” vs. the Giants. … Russell Wilson has three touchdowns in four of his past five starts despite averaging just 25 attempts during that timespan. He will try to keep the high-wire act going against a Packers defense that’s short-handed at safety. Being in Seattle should help.
Similar to Wilson, Philip Rivers keeps having multi-score games on paltry attempts totals. Unlike Wilson, Rivers is capping out at two. He hasn’t cleared that number since Week 4. There’s no compelling reason to expect a volume spike against the Broncos. … With just seven passing touchdowns over his past five starts, Kirk Cousins will be facing a Bears defense serving up the league’s lowest quarterback rating (79.8). Keeping Cousins in the mid-range QB2 mix is Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs’ weekly blow-up potential. … On something that could be considered a bit of a hot streak by his recent standards, Dak Prescott should stay productive on the road in Atlanta. The Cowboys will have to score to keep up and the Falcons are coughing up the third-most quarterback fantasy points and fourth-most quarterback rushing yards. … “Something resembling a hot streak” could also be said for Marcus Mariota. Over his early-season injury, Mariota is playing with more confidence as his supporting cast gels. The Colts are an attackable foe. … Eli Manning is facing the league’s worst defense with Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley at his disposal. Hopefully he doesn’t screw it up.
The Ravens are playing coy on whether Robert Griffin III or Lamar Jackson would start if Joe Flacco (hip) can’t go. If Jackson gets the call, he will have QB1 upside against the Bengals’ awful defense. Jackson’s rushing threat is that deadly. … Suddenly playing genuinely bad football, Matthew Stafford has been pulverized for 16 sacks over his past two starts. He will be in a world of trouble if Marvin Jones (knee) can’t get cleared. Even in Jones plays, Stafford has not shown anything of late to suggest he will exploit a Panthers defense that just got roughed up by Ben Roethlisberger. … Blake Bortles has been playing better since his Week 7 benching while the Jaguars’ defense has been playing worse. Bortles is a solid QB2 dart throw if you are hurting in a week with six teams on bye. … Case Keenum has stabilized his floor but still has nothing in the way of ceiling. … Josh Rosen has cleared 250 yards only once and passed for more than one score only once. The time is now against the Raiders’ truly-embarrassing defense. … Alex Smith is a shell game. … Andy Dalton in Baltimore without A.J. Green … yikes.
Week 11 Running Backs
RB Notes: Todd Gurley is on pace for 2,224 yards from scrimmage, which would be 20th most all time and the most by anyone since DeMarco Murray in 2014. … Melvin Gordon is averaging 143 yards from scrimmage over his past five contests. The Broncos are coughing up over 130 rushing yards per game and nearly five yards per carry. … Kareem Hunt was held scoreless for the first time since Week 1 last weekend. The odds of a repeat against a backsliding Rams D will be slim to none. Wade Phillips’ unit is permitting a league-worst 5.19 yards per carry. There will be drives to finish in a game with a 63.5 over/under. … Eli Manning reality has been biting Saquon Barkley a bit over the past three games, a timeframe in which he’s averaging “just” 102 yards from scrimmage while finding the end zone one time. Although better against the run than the pass, the Bucs are a get-right spot. … Ezekiel Elliott was unstoppable against the Eagles’ usually-stout run defense in Week 10. His 187 yards from scrimmage were his second most of the season. For Week 11, he gets a Falcons defense surrendering the league’s second-worst YPC (5.18).
On a Gurley-ian scoring binge, Christian McCaffrey is up to RB7 status by average .5 PPR points. He has 295 yards from scrimmage over his past two games. The Lions’ bottom-barrel run defense is a top-notch matchup. … With two touchdowns and 183 yards from scrimmage in Kansas City, David Johnson confirmed he’s back. Not playing NFL-caliber defense, the Raiders are a perfect spot to get a hot streak going. Only Johnson’s abysmal supporting cast keeps him out of the top five. … The Eagles are going soft against the run just in time for a road matchup with Alvin Kamara, who has eight touchdowns over his past four games. A 55 over/under signals clear skies ahead. … With Le’Veon Bell officially surfing, James Conner will get to knock down the fantasy playoffs pins he’s been setting up all season. Before last Thursday’s concussion-shortened outing, Conner had cleared 120 yards from scrimmage in four-straight games. Matchups don’t matter for the Steelers’ feature back. … Aaron Jones is averaging 7.46 yards per carry in three games since the Packers’ bye. Just run over by Todd Gurley, the Seahawks are quietly getting ripped for 5.00 yards per carry.
There were no training wheels for Leonard Fournette in his Week 10 return, as he touched the ball a whopping 29 times. He struggled for efficiency on the mammoth volume, though he did find the end zone twice. Doubling down on an ineffective identity, the Jags will continue to feed Fournette the rock as much as possible. … Joe Mixon out-touched Giovani Bernard 13-4 in Bernard’s Week 10 return. It’s discouraging for Bernard that the gulf was so wide, as the Bengals got boat raced. If that sort of game script isn’t good for Cincinnati’s change-up back, nothing will be. … Not even Royce Freeman’s (ankle) expected return can crimp Phillip Lindsay’s RB2 style. Lindsay has established himself as the clear-cut 1A of a not-so-close committee. … Marlon Mack finally had a down game against the Jaguars. Now he has to deal with a Titans squad handing out the fewest running back fantasy points. Nevertheless, Mack gets a rankings mulligan. … Tevin Coleman has had two good games this season. Failing to put away Ito Smith, Coleman has a tougher-than-you-might-imagine test in the Cowboys.
Although he had a disappointing fantasy day against the Patriots, Dion Lewis notched a season-high 20 carries. Lewis is averaging 21 touches over his past three contests. That’s getting close to RB1 usage. … Dalvin Cook announced his return with a 70-yard run in Week 9. Of course, he generated just 19 yards on his nine other carries. With the Vikings’ bye week to get closer to 100 percent health, Cook might get true feature usage vs. the Bears’ elite D. … Kerryon Johnson had one of his worst games of the season in Week 9 before bouncing back against the Bears. It was nice to see, but with LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick refusing to go away, Johnson will remain hard to trust as anything more than a back-end RB2. … Adrian Peterson cleared 20 touches for the third time in four games last Sunday. His offensive line injuries have lowered his ceiling and destabilized his floor, but Peterson’s workloads will remain voluminous. … Alex Collins has been mostly bad in 2018. He will try to change that against a Bengals run defense that’s one of the two worst in the league by most metrics.
One of the only Raiders coming to play in recent weeks, Doug Martin has a mouthwatering matchup in the Cardinals. … Every time I think I’ve cornered the truth with Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard, it proves to be fake news. I like Cohen more as a player, so I will rank him higher against the Vikings. … Lamar Miller flips the script almost as much as the Bears’ running backs. Washington is not an exciting fantasy opponent. … Jacquizz Rodgers is catching passes and Ronald Jones is returning. No matter, Peyton Barber should keep up the early-down grinding. … Chris Carson (hip) will evidently be plugged right back into his starting role. Rashaad Penny, meanwhile, will supposedly be third on the totem pole despite Sunday’s wildly encouraging performance. I will give Penny the “eye test” benefit of the doubt over Mike Davis. In general, it’s also best not to listen to anything coach Pete Carroll says. … Josh Adams keeps making the argument for more work. Let’s see if he gets it in what should be a see/saw affair with a tough Saints run D. … This is going to be the week Ty Montgomery replaces Javorius Allen, I can feel it.
Week 11 Receivers
WR Notes: Piping hot, Michael Thomas now gets a home date with an Eagles defense permitting the sixth-most receiver fantasy points. … Odell Beckham survived one of the worst deep balls of all time for a 4/73/2 Week 10 on 11 looks. Beckham has cleared 10 targets in all but one game. (He drew nine in Week 2.) However bad Eli Manning is, Beckham has stratospheric upside against the Bucs’ nonexistent defense. … DeAndre Hopkins drew 12 targets in the first game of the post-Will Fuller era in the Texans’ receiver corps. Neither Demaryius Thomas nor Keke Coutee will come between Hopkins and gobbling up looks. … Julio Jones is on pace for the third-most receiving yards in NFL history (1,849). He’s also found the end zone in back-to-back weeks. There is not a defender in the league who can hang with Jones, one of the most physically-imposing athletes in American history. … Tyreek Hill against a crumbling Rams defense “keyed” by a gambling — and struggling — Marcus Peters in the secondary? Thoughts and prayers to Wade Phillips. … Adam Thielen had his first bad Sunday of the season before the Vikings’ Week 10 bye. Expect a course correction against the Bears, though it is worth noting Thielen has just 14 targets over his past two appearances.
No one shuts down Antonio Brown. Not even the Jags could slow him in a pair of 2017 meetings. This might be too much of a Jalen Ramsey tax. … The season is barely half over and Davante Adams is already only one score away from his third-straight 10-touchdown campaign. Seattle’s no-name defense is hanging tough but not shutting stars down. … One of the most consistent players in football, Robert Woods will see increased slot usage in Cooper Kupp’s (knee) absence, upping his already considerable floor with free-money targets. … Coming off his first 10-look game of the year, Brandin Cooks should be more consistent with Kupp on the shelf. At the bare minimum, he should see eight targets vs. a Chiefs D that has improved but hardly evolved into a shutdown unit. … JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging a modest seven looks since the month of September ended. His upside keeps him on the WR1/2 borderline. Smith-Schuster’s Week 11 outlook will be enhanced if A.J. Bouye (calf) remains sidelined for the Jaguars. … Mike Evans is in a two-game funk, and the Giants have limited rival receiver production. There is still no one playing particularly well in the G-Men’s cornerback group. Evans is always a potential week winner.
I wanted to be higher on Keenan Allen, but as The Lord points out in his Worksheet, Allen has a rough history with Denver’s Chris Harris. Philip Rivers’ lack of passing volume has undercut what was supposed to be Allen’s main fantasy selling point (hella targets). … Back to full health following the Vikings’ bye week, Stefon Diggs (ribs) has eclipsed 10 targets in 6-of-8 appearances. … Emmanuel Sanders’ usage should be gangbusters down the stretch. … T.Y. Hilton has posted just one 100-yard game and has not reached 10 targets since Week 3. His Week 11 case is predicated on the Titans’ defensive weakness being against wideouts. … Marshon Lattimore is not a matchup you would attack, but Alshon Jeffery should see enough looks for a WR2 day in a domed game with a 56-point over/under. At least for one week, new addition Golden Tate failed to cut into any of Jeffery, Zach Ertz or Nelson Agholor’s usage. … Tate’s trade didn’t do it for Kenny Golladay in Detroit. It took Marvin Jones’ knee injury to finally revive Golladay’s fantasy case. With Jones day to day with a bone bruise, Golladay could be destined for herculean usage against a Panthers secondary that just got smithereens’d by the Steelers. He is currently ranked as if Jones will play.
For Tyler Boyd to only draw four targets in a game his team lost 51-14 … hard to believe. Now he will be trying to bounce back against the shutdown Ravens. Despite last week’s disaster, owners must put their faith in Boyd’s continued high-volume setup. … Amari Cooper has drawn 18 targets through two games as a Cowboy. His two-game high for Jon Gruden’s Raiders was 16. The Falcons are surrendering the third-most receiver fantasy points. … Corey Davis and Marcus Mariota seem to be gaining confidence together. Davis’ back-to-back 10-target games are the first of his career. … Speaking of back-to-back 10-target games, there’s Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz has benefitted from OC Byron Leftwich’s promotion almost as much as David Johnson. He has to be licking his chops to face a Raiders “defense” getting dismantled for 9.1 yards per pass. … The Bengals are a gorgeous matchup for volatile John Brown. The question is who will be under center for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson’s insertion in place of Joe Flacco would be high-risk but also extremely high reward. … Sammy Watkins (foot) will be healthy for his #RevengeGame with the Rams. Watkins has cleared 60 yards in three-straight games. The Rams are getting scorched downfield.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been hit or miss, but his target share is absolutely that of a WR3. … Tyler Lockett keeps scoring but has drawn more than five looks once in his past five games. … Allen Robinson finally showed up last week. If coach Matt Nagy could keep sparking a Robinson connection with Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears’ offense would take a dangerous step forward. … I wanted to be higher on Courtland Sutton, but as The Lord counsels, the Chargers have been erasing boundary receivers. … Sterling Shepard is catching passes from Eli Manning. You know the deal. You also know matchups do not get better than the Bucs, especially over the middle of the field. … Devin Funchess keeps tumbling further from WR3 safety. … Donte Moncrief’s numbers would make him a TE1. Wide receiver? WR3/4 borderline. … Keke Coutee showed a lot of promise earlier this season, but his health woes and the rejiggering of the Texans’ receiver corps make him a wait and see unless you are desperate. … Maurice Harris is living that Willie Snead lifestyle. He has more upside than Josh Doctson, who has zero upside.
Week 11 Tight Ends
TE Notes: How good has Travis Kelce been? His six-catch, 46-yard Week 10 was his worst game since Week 1. Week 11 opponent Los Angeles (Rams) is allowing the 15th-most tight end fantasy points despite facing a frightfully easy slate of opposing seam stretchers. … So … Golden Tate didn’t seem to affect Zach Ertz’s output much in Week 10, did he. … Week 10 was the first time a healthy O.J. Howard was held below 50 yards. Week 9 was the first time he was held below 60. Rough quarterback play is denting Howard’s ceiling, but he still has a top-five combination of floor and ceiling. … Greg Olsen is fifth in tight end targets (29) and sixth in yardage (225) since his Week 6 return. The Lions are a soft matchup. … The Seahawks are surrendering the seventh-fewest tight end fantasy points but coughed up scores to each of Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee in Week 10. With Randall Cobb (hamstring) remaining sidelined, Jimmy Graham should bounce back from last week’s 1/14.
Evan Engram has 14 targets over his past two games. The Bucs are permitting the second-most tight end fantasy points. That’s good enough to get Engram into the top eight in an uncertain week. … I do not like having Jared Cook this high, but who else is left to throw to in Oakland? Cook’s nine Week 10 targets were his most since Week 4. … Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron: It’s complicated. I’ll go with: Doyle still out-snapped Ebron 48-21 against the Jaguars. He ran nine more routes (22-13). Doyle’s usage has been heavier since his return, even if Ebron’s Week 10 box score was hellaciously good. … Trey Burton has 11 targets in three games since his Week 7 explosion. There’s only so much you can do with that in fantasy. Allen Robinson’s emergence would further lower Burton’s ceiling. … Austin Hooper has been booming and busting all season. If you are going to trust that kind of fantasy option, at least make sure they play in one of the league’s best offenses. Hooper does.
Jordan Reed has 24 targets over his past three games but only 123 yards. At some point, the laws of nature will take over and Reed will have a big game. … Eric Ebron just dropped a neutron bomb on the Jaguars. Big Game Vance McDonald has the skills to take advantage. That’s if he gets the looks. We never know. … Kyle Rudolph hasn’t cleared 40 yards since Week 5. … The first game of the post-Demaryius Thomas era in Denver was good for Jeff Heuerman, good enough to take a flier if you’re hurting at tight end. … With Jermaine Gresham back on the shelf, Ricky Seals-Jones drew a season-high nine targets against the Chiefs. The expansion Raiders are a gorgeous Week 11 matchup. … James O’Shaughnessy has quietly cleared 25 yards in four-straight games. That’s better than nothing. … Josh Reynolds will take Cooper Kupp’s place in three-receiver sets, but tight ends Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee were already seeing increased usage before Kupp’s injury. The Chiefs are a golden matchup.
Week 11 Kickers
Week 11 Defense/Special Teams
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