The NFL postseason is one of the heaviest times of the year to see increased betting action since we have so much focus on each individual game. The Super Bowl is the apex for that betting environment and is the most heavily wagered game of each NFL season when it comes to betting fine-line minutia. One of the most popular aspects of that of that betting is individual player props. While you can’t strike it rich on player prop bets because the majority of books have restricted limits on player props, they do offer an edge since the books since the lines are being set on the basics of a player, his average stats, and the average stats of the defense he is facing. We went 4-2 for the second straight week in the Conference Championship Round on prop picks, so we’re looking to wrap up a positive postseason run here in the Super Bowl. With the Super Bowl being the final game of the season, it’s easy to extend yourself on these types of bets. While I’m going to swerve into that element here by offering more picks than I have been, be aware not to extend yourself to greatly this Sunday. Also, as always make sure that you shop around for the best lines on these wagers.
Tom Brady Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
Tom Brady Over 291.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Addressing these two together since they are so closely knitted. The Patriots have really leaned into letting Brady wing the ball around in the postseason. Since turning 35-years old, Brady has played in 17 postseason games, averaging a whopping 44.8 passing attempts and 331.2 passing yards per game. This postseason run has been no different with Brady attempting 44 and 46 passes for 343 and 348 yards. Brady has hit the over for this current line in attempts in 10 consecutive postseason games while passing for at least 290 yards in each of those 10 games. Although New England has run the ball well in each postseason game this season, this offense is still predicated on putting the ball in Brady’s hands.
Julian Edelman Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
The biggest benefactor of Brady’s consistent postseason passing production has been Edelman. With his seven catch, 96-yard performance on 10 targets in the AFC Championship Game, Edelman now has had double-digit targets in each of his past 11 postseason games played. Over that span, he’s averaged 8.2 receptions for 101.1 receiving yards per game. Over those 12 games, Edelman has hit the over for this yardage mark in 10 of them. With Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters on the outside for the Rams lining up against the inferior Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett, Edelman should once again see a plethora of volume.
Todd Gurley Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Todd Gurley Over 3.5 Receptions (-115)
Another pair that goes together, Gurley’s pass catching ability should be featured this Sunday. Although that was element of his game that got him benched in the NFC Championship, I’m expecting a bounce back here. The Patriots ranked 20th in receptions (5.5) and 24th in receiving yards (48.5) surrendered per game to opposing backfields during the regular season and allowed the Chargers backfield to catch seven passes for 52 yards in the Divisional Round and the Chiefs backs to catch seven passes for 87 yards and touchdowns. New England has been strong against the run this postseason prior to scripting teams out of trying to run, allowing just 49 yards on 20 rushing attempts to Chargers and Chiefs backs. I still expect C.J. Anderson to be a part of the rushing splits on Sunday, but Gurley has run more pass routes than Anderson in each of the two postseason games.
James White Under 6.0 Receptions (-108)
James White Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
I’m prepared to eat crow here because I’ve made some podcast rounds and every show I’ve been on loves the over for White’s receiving props. The public also loves them as well. But objectively, this line is set too high with the added bonus that you can plus odds on it at multiple books. So, this one you should definitely shop around on and find those sites that I am unable to promote in this space. It’s not so much about being down on White as much as it is getting a favorable bet in terms of probability and a positive payout.
When White hits, he typically hits big, but his usage is far more all over the place than realized while the Rams were strong against opposing backs in the pass game this season. While he had a gaudy 17 targets in the Divisional Round against the Chargers, he managed just six targets in the AFC Championship against a Kansas City team that had a glaring weakness in covering backs out of the backfield all season long. Over the eight games the Patriots have played since their Week 11 bye, White has had six receptions in a game just twice and has had more than 49 receiving yards in a game just twice. In fact, White has cleared six catches in just two of his past 10 games. Only four backs caught five or more passes in a game this season against the Rams and they allowed just 29.8 receiving yards per game to backs during the regular season (fourth in the league). Granted, one of those was Alvin Kamara (11 receptions for 96 yards on 13 targets) in the NFC Championship game, but you can get both of these props at even to plus odds in places (and even at a higher reception total than an even six) attached to numbers far above his recent per game totals outside of the Chargers game, which makes it an intriguing prop.
Gerald Everett Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
We’ve had a lot of talk this week about how the Patriots will defend the Rams and how good that New England has been against 11 personnel this season, leading us to the notion that the Rams will incorporate more two-tight end sets into Sunday’s offensive game plan. Well, that already happened a week ago as Everett played 46 snaps (his second highest total of the season) and ran 27 pass routes (his third-highest total in a game). If Everett is going to be on the field more than usual, he’s the more dynamic pass catcher of the Rams’ tight ends and this is a very low bar to clear. Everett has hit this total in four of his past six games.
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 1.5 Receptions (+134)
At plus odds nearly everywhere, this is a fun one. The Super Bowl always has quirky moments in which ancillary players such as Patterson have shined their brightest, but Patterson has had multiple receptions in four of his past six games played, so we’re not entirely chasing here. Patterson is only averaging 14.5 snaps per game, but was targeted on 17.2 percent of those snaps, which ranked eighth among all wideouts. You won’t empty your wallet here, but I’m banking on the Patriots getting Patterson multiple touches.
Jared Goff Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+158)
This is another prop that varies from place to place. It’s not something to attack everywhere because there’s a low bar here but is worth exploring in the spots that offer the under with positive odds. Although a longer play, Goff hasn’t been quite himself as a fantasy quarterback to close the season and that has rolled over into the postseason. Over the seven games since the Rams Week 12 bye, Goff has thrown one of fewer touchdown passes in six of those games.
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