The NFL postseason is one of the heaviest times of the year to see increased betting action since we have so much focus on each individual game. One of the most popular aspects of playoff football betting is individual player props. While you can’t strike it rich on player prop bets because the majority of books have restricted limits on player props, they do offer an edge since the books since the lines are being set on the basics of a player, his average stats, and the average stats of the defense he is facing. For the Wild Card Round, I’m going to be highlighting my favorite player props from each team.
Andrew Luck: Over 291.5 Passing Yards
The Colts running backs had absolutely zero success versus the Texans in either regular-season meeting these teams had. Indianapolis backs combined for 64 yards rushing on 31 carries in those games. That is par for the course versus the Texans as Houston allowed the fewest yards per carry to opposing backfields (3.13 YPC) and 62.5 rushing yards per game (second). In those games, the Colts threw the ball 79.5 percent of the time in their Week 4 meeting (their most pass-heavy game of the season) and 65.2 percent of the time in their Week 14 win in Houston. Luck made all of that passing volume stick as he threw for 464 yards and 399 yards in those games. Prior to shutting down Blake Bortles in Week 17, Houston had allowed opposing passers to average 364.6 passing yards per game over their previous five games.
DeAndre Carter: Under 35.5 Receiving Yards
With Keke Coutee out of the lineup, Carter has been running in the slot for the Texans. With Coutee returning to action this week, the 5’8”, 190-poud Carter is going to be relegated back to the bottom of the depth chart, with Vyncint Smith lining up as the other boundary wide receiver opposite of DeAndre Hopkins. With his playing time cut down, Carter may not even see more than a couple of ancillary targets here.
Ezekiel Elliott: Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
Elliott’s season really took off once the Cowboys realized they could throw him the football. From Weeks 9-16, Elliott caught 52 passes and was targeted 59 times, trailing only Christian McCaffrey in each category. Over that span, he averaged 49 receiving yards per game. Seattle was vulnerable to pass-catching backs during the regular season, allowing 56.8 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields, which ranked 30th in the league.
Chris Carson: Over 78.5 Rushing Yards
Carson received at least 20 touches in each of the final four games of the season and has rushed for 90 or more yards in each of those games. He also has already hit this number against the Cowboys, rushing for 102 yards back when these teams met in Week 3. The Dallas defense has had a couple of hiccups the past few weeks allowing Marlon Mack (139 yards) and Saquon Barkley (109) to have successful rushing games over their past three games.
Philip Rivers: Under 256.5 Passing Yards
In five December starts, Rivers averaged just 237.8 passing yards per game. That includes a 181-yard performance in Week 16 against this Ravens defense at home. In Baltimore, the Ravens allowed just 206.4 passing yards per game this season (sixth) and just 2-of-8 starting quarterbacks they faced at home to reach this total in game this season.
Mark Andrews: Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
Andrews hasn’t been a catch machine, but he has been a yardage producer. On passes from Lamar Jackson, Andrews is averaging 23.7 yards per catch as oppose to the 11.6 yards per catch he was averaging on completions from Joe Flacco. Even if you remove Andrews’ 68-yard touchdown catch two weeks ago against the same Chargers defense he faces this week, he’s still averaging 20.0 yards per catch from Jackson and has had at least 19 receiving yards in six of the seven starts by Jackson.
Mitchell Trubisky: Over 24.5 Rushing Yards
Trubisky has been at his best this season at home and that includes using his legs. At home, he’s averaging 38.6 rushing yards per game as opposed to 18.7 yards rushing on the road. The Eagles have been susceptible to mobile quarterbacks since they blitz so much and play man-t-man defense on the outside. So far this season, the Eagles have faced Deshaun Watson (49 yards rushing), Blake Bortles (43 yards), Cam Newton (49 yards) and Marcus Mariota (46 yards) while allowing rushing success to all.
Allen Robinson: Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
A bonus Bears pick. Robinson is already practicing in full after sitting out Week 17, so all signs early on are that he’s good to go this weekend versus the Eagles. No team allowed more receptions (6.4), faced more targets (10.3) or allowed more receiving yardage per game(90.3) to opposing lead receivers than the Eagles this season. Robinson’s season was a disappointment, but his passing game opportunity was solid to close the year, averaging 23.5 percent of the team targets per game over his final seven games played with over 25 percent of the targets over his past three games played.
Darren Sproles: Over 38.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Sproles has totaled 36, 46, 108 and 36 total yards in each of his past four games as the Eagles backfield is back to being a full-fledge committee. But the Eagles have outright controlled two of their past three games. In the one game (vs Houston) that was more competitive and had them trailing, Sproles played 38 snaps while Josh Adams and Wendell Smallwood combined for 41. 55.1 percent of the yardage allowed to opposing backfields by the Bears stems from receiving output, the fifth-highest share in the league.
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