The NFL postseason is one of the heaviest times of the year to see increased betting action since we have so much focus on each individual game. One of the most popular aspects of playoff football betting is individual player props. While you can’t strike it rich on player prop bets because the majority of books have restricted limits on player props, they do offer an edge since the books’ lines are set based on the player’s average stats, and the average stats of the defense he is facing. Fortune found us last week, going 4-2 in prop picks.
Robert Woods Over 74.5 Receiving Yards
For as steady as Woods has been, this line is set at a number that he’s hit just twice over his past 10 games. That said, there’s reason to have optimism that he’s going to push past that mark this weekend. Woods fell just short of this mark the last time these teams played when he posted 71 yards on five receptions. In that Week 9 meeting, however, the Rams had Cooper Kupp in the lineup, pushing Woods outside more often. In that game, Woods ran just 35.7 percent of his routes from the slot, his lowest rate in a game Weeks 5-19. In the seven games since Kupp was lost for the season, Woods has averaged 72.6 percent of his routes from the slot, including 88 percent and 81 percent over the past two games. Playing inside will afford Woods the best of the individual matchups, lining up across from P.J. Williams instead of Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple.
C.J. Anderson under 57.5 Rushing Yards
Anderson has rushed for 167, 132 and 123 yards over his past three games and out-touched Todd Gurley 24-19 a week ago when Gurley returned to the lineup. But those three games allowed the Rams to go extremely run heavy as they played from ahead consistently. Over those games, the Rams ran the ball on 61.2 percent of their offensive snaps as they were tied or led in the game on 85.5 percent of those plays. On the road as underdogs against the Saints will be much different in terms of generating positive game script to afford the offense keeping Anderson on the field and when he is on it, he will be facing the league’s best rushing defense. New Orleans has allowed a league-low 55.9 rushing yards per game allowed to backfields and the most rushing yards and individual back had against them was 76 yards by Ezekiel Elliott.
Ted Ginn Over 55.5 Receiving Yards
Ginn has had 74 and 44 yards receiving yards in his two games back in the lineup, receiving 20.5 percent and 18.9 percent of the New Orleans passing targets in those games. Ginn has only been active for six games this season, but four of those games have come at home, with him posting 68, 55, 74 and 44 yards. The Rams allowed a career-high 211 receiving yards to Michael Thomas the last time that these teams met, so he will surely have their attention on defense this week while the Rams have allowed secondary wideouts in Michael Gallup (119 yards), Trent Sherfield (62 yards) and Kendrick Bourne (59 yards) to have modest yardage totals receiving over their past three games.
Julian Edelman Over 82.5 Receiving Yards
The playoffs are where Edelman is at his best and when the Patriots force feed their passing game through him. Edelman has double-digit targets in each of his past 10 postseason games, averaging 100 yards receiving per game over that span with just two of those games going under this total. Even if the weather is poor, Edelman’s target volume can remain reliable.
Travis Kelce Under 91.5 Receiving Yards
This line is actually higher than Kelce’s to date average of 84.9 receiving yards per game and number he’s hit in just three of his past eight games. The Patriots do as good of a job as any defense in limiting the key offensive weapons for the opposition and they have been no different with how they defend Kelce. Over their three meetings in each of the past three seasons, Kelce has posted lines of just 5-61, 5-40 and 6-23 against New England.
James White Over 73.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
The Colts let the Chiefs off the hook easy last week by not even attacking them with their backfield in any capacity throughout the game. Last week, Indianapolis backs accounted for just 70 yards on 12 touches with six of those touches for 58 of the yards coming in the fourth quarter. They only targeted their running backs just twice all game despite the Chiefs ranking 23rd in receptions allowed to opposing backfields (5.8 per game) for 55.9 yards per game (28th) during the regular season. The Patriots surely won’t have a similar game plan as White led their team in targets in the regular season (123) and then came out and got 17 more targets last week to open the postseason. White could get her eon receiving output alone, but I prefer the yards from scrimmage prop over the straight receiving yardage one because you get the added benefit of tacking on whatever rushing comes your way against a rush defense that is equally as lackluster versus backfields against the run as they are in pass defense. Last week was the only game all season in which White didn’t have a rushing attempt and game script could aid his snap count outside of game planning. White caught 5-of-7 targets for 53 yards while he also chipped in 39 yards rushing in the Week 6 meeting between these teams.
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