Monday Night Football
NY Giants @ Philadelphia
The Vegas total on Giants-Eagles is 49.5, third highest on the Sunday/Monday slate. Philly is a four-point favorite with a rock-solid team total of just under 27 points. … Although Sam Bradford‘s weekly performances have become tales of two halves — he sputters early before catching fire late — the fantasy bottom line is that Bradford has produced top-six cumulative QB1 stats over the last two weeks in an Eagles offense that has resumed pushing the pace. Philly logged a season-high 87 offensive snaps in last week’s tail-kicking of the Saints, while Bradford now ranks fourth in the NFL in pass attempts. In Week 6, Bradford will do battle with a Giants team ranked No. 2 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA, but 20th versus the pass and 28th in sacks (7). New York will also be missing RCB Prince Amukamara (pec strain), its most consistent cover man. Bradford’s pocket should largely be clean, and he should see heavy volume in a mouth-watering matchup. He’s an upside QB1 play. … For better or worse, the Eagles appear committed to DeMarco Murray as their lead back, feeding him a season-high 27 touches on 51% of the snaps against New Orleans. Ryan Mathews remained more efficient than Murray, but only touched the ball 11 times and played 24% of the downs. Darren Sproles (6 touches, 30%) remained a low-volume satellite player. The Giants did finally spring run-defense leaks in last Sunday night’s win over San Francisco as Carlos Hyde and Jarryd Hayne combined for 102 yards and a touchdown on 23 runs (4.43 YPC). The matchup still isn’t ideal, but Murray is seeing enough volume in a high-scoring enough offense for every-week RB2 treatment. Mathews is at the low end of the flex conversation, while Sproles isn’t an attractive flex.
Bradford’s Weeks 1-5 target distribution: Jordan Matthews 45; Zach Ertz 27; Sproles 24; Murray 20; Riley Cooper and Nelson Agholor 17; Miles Austin 12; Josh Huff and Ryan Mathews 11. … The last three weeks have been frustrating for J-Matt; he’s been held to 50 yards or fewer in each contest. Matthews has still seen seven or more targets in every game he’s played this year and continues to have plus matchups, in Week 6 drawing Giants slot CB Trumaine McBride, who has easily the worst PFF coverage grade among New York’s cornerbacks and stands 5’9/185 to Matthews’ 6’3/212. McBride also missed Friday’s practice and was listed with an “illness/groin” designation. Matthews flamed the Giants for 8-105-1 in Week 17 last year. If he can’t produce in this matchup, there will be legit cause for concern. I’m betting J-Matt delivers. … Ertz remains scoreless on the season, but is coming off his most productive box score of the year (5-60) and gets a juicy Week 6 matchup with a Giants defense yielding the NFL’s most catches to tight ends, and the fourth most fantasy points. This is a fine week to stream Ertz if he hit the waiver wire in your league. … Battling a muscle injury in his shin/ankle, Agholor looks on the doubtful side of questionable. Agholor’s absence could send more targets to Ertz and Matthews, and more snaps to fellow rotational receivers Cooper, Austin, and Huff.
The four-point road dog Giants have a Week 6 team total of just under 23. … Climbing to No. 7 in this year’s fantasy quarterback rankings, Eli Manning will enter Monday night red hot with a 68.9% completion rate, 10:2 TD-to-INT ratio, and 306-yard average over the last month. Eli also benefits from a no-huddle-heavy New York offense that ranks seventh in the NFL in snaps. Not only do the similarly up-tempo Eagles force their opponents to play faster, they demand foes generate offense via the passing game by ranking No. 4 in run-defense DVOA and holding enemy RBs to 3.65 yards per carry. Arguably playing the best football of his life, Eli offers a monster ceiling as a potential Monday Night Hammer. … After not catching a single pass in Weeks 3-4, Shane Vereen reappeared for an 8-86-1 receiving line in last Sunday night’s win over the 49ers, producing a season-best 110 total yards on 49% of the snaps. It should be noted that three of Vereen’s receptions and 54 of his receiving yards occurred on New York’s final drive, with Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham nursing hamstring injuries. Albeit with a low floor, Vereen makes sense as a flex play in PPR leagues in what projects as a fast-paced game. … Rashad Jennings typically offers the highest weekly floor in New York’s running back corps, but has a limited ceiling as part of a three-way committee wherein goal-line work can be vultured by Andre Williams. In a bad matchup, Jennings would be a truly desperate Week 6 flex play.
Eli’s Weeks 1-5 target distribution: Odell Beckham 52; Larry Donnell 30; Rueben Randle 26; Vereen 25; Dwayne Harris 15; Jennings 12. … Although Philadelphia has played better pass defense this year than last, the Eagles are still coughing up generous numbers to opposing wide receivers. The following are receiving lines so far given up by Philly: 9-141-2 (Julio Jones), 10-109-1 (Brandon Marshall), 6-141 (Willie Snead), 5-107-1 (Brandin Cooks), 7-55-1 (Pierre Garcon), 4-84-1 (Terrance Williams), 7-65 (Jamison Crowder). Beckham flamed Eagles DC Billy Davis‘ defense for 12-185-1 in Week 17 last season and should be locked into fantasy lineups despite last week’s hamstring scare. … Randle’s two 2014 stat lines against Philadelphia were 5-58-0 and 6-158-0. You never know what you’re gonna get from “Roob,” who is a hit-or-miss WR3 fantasy option. … Slot man Harris could come into play as a sneaky WR3/flex should Beckham or Randle experience a pre-game setback. Showing reasonably well in the old Victor Cruzrole, Harris has topped 50 receiving yards in back-to-back games. … Allowing the fifth most receptions in the league to tight ends, the Eagles offer a plus draw for Donnell coming off last Sunday night’s game-winning touchdown catch. Donnell is 14th among tight ends in fantasy scoring and belongs in the TE1 streamer conversation every week.
DFS Players: Giants at Eagles is the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week. Some of RotoGrinders’ top NFL minds break down this game from every angle and help prepare you to set winning lineups this weekend in daily fantasy football.
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 24
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