Monday Night Football
Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Team Totals: N/A
Jacoby Brissett is worth Week 6 streamer discussion against Tennessee’s pass-funnel defense, which has surrendered top-seven fantasy weeks to Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson, facing low-volume game manager Blake Bortles and Dolphins trainwreck Jay Cutler in its other two games. The Titans have allowed the NFL’s sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (89), notable since Brissett ranks seventh at his position in rush attempts (22) and tied for first in rushing scores (3). Brissett has been a top-ten fantasy quarterback in two of his last three starts, the understandable outlier coming in Week 4 at Seattle. … This is a concerning matchup for the Colts’ running game against a Titans defense that has held enemy backs to a combined 127/439/3.46/2 rushing line and the NFL’s seventh-fewest receptions (21). Colts backs’ floors are further lowered by RG Jack Mewhort‘s year-ending knee injury. Although rookie Marlon Mack is a hot name after dropping 93 total yards and a touchdown on the 49ers last week, Mack played just 22% of the Colts’ offensive snaps and remains a timeshare back along with Frank Gore (51%) and Robert Turbin (28%). Realistically, Mack would need at least an injury to Turbin to become a reliable flex play. He’s a volatile shot in the dark as long as the backfield is healthy.
Brissett’s Weeks 2-5 target distribution: T.Y. Hilton 30; Jack Doyle 20; Kamar Aiken 22; Donte Moncrief 17; Gore 10; Turbin 5; Mack 2. … Inept in the secondary, the Titans bleed wide receiver production, having yielded stat lines of 10/107/1 (DeAndre Hopkins), 10/105/1 (Doug Baldwin), 6/83/0 (Michael Crabtree), 6/82/1 (Allen Hurns), 7/76/0 (Marqise Lee), 5/62/1 (Amari Cooper), 5/44/1 (Jarvis Landry), and 2/30/1 (Paul Richardson) through only five games. Now clearly on the same page with Brissett, Hilton has topped 150 yards in two of his last three games and came very close to a 200-plus-yard Week 5 if not for a few missed opportunities. Tennessee has allowed a league-high 12 passing touchdowns. … Moncrief’s stat lines in Brissett’s starts are 2/18/0, 2/44/0, 3/30/1, and 3/32/0. Last week, Moncrief (70%) was out-snapped by Aiken (88%). Aiken’s stat lines in Brissett’s starts are 3/31/0, 1/9/0, 1/4/0, and 2/22/0. … The Colts’ only other fantasy-viable pass catcher is Doyle, who is back after missing Week 5 with a concussion. The Titans are allowing the NFL’s seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
The Titans are a difficult team to analyze because Marcus Mariota (hamstring) is uncertain to play and will at best be a game-time decision. Unsurprisingly, the offense collapsed with long-washed Matt Cassel at the Week 5 controls. … All this week, coach Mike Mularkey was publicly insistent Derrick Henry needs more touches, strongly suggesting the Titans plan to resume a near-even RBBC with Henry and DeMarco Murray after Murray out-touched Henry 18 to 4 in last week’s loss to Miami. The Colts have played above-average run defense, holding enemy running backs to a combined 110/399/3.63/4 rushing line. Murray should be downgraded to a mid-range to low-end RB2 play. Henry is a touchdown-dependent flex option. … Even against a porous Colts secondary, you’re entirely on your own trying to throw darts at Tennessee receivers and tight ends. With Cassel quarterbacking 75% of the plays over the past two weeks, no Titans pass catcher cleared 51 yards. No. 3 tight end “Phillip Supernaw” has the lone TD.
Score Prediction: Colts 23, Titans 17
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