As we’ve now reach mid-August and the middle of the preseason, actual fantasy drafts are starting to take place. No matter what your league or your draft strategy, your draft is going to orbit around individual players that you either like or dislike. We’ve consistently shown throughout time that we as fantasy drafters are going to get a litany of binary player choices incorrect during our drafts, but there’s no way to get around having to make those decisions. You’re going to have to pick players when you’re on the clock. 


Inside the NFL Draft Guide, I share the players that I am selecting the most often at their current market value and how they fit into team constructon. 

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If you’re already a Draft Guide user, you can see the entire column here.

But if you want a small taste of the exclusive analysis you’ll receive inside, here ya go!



Mid-Second and the 2-3 Turn


Rob Gronkowski – Aggregate ADP: 20.6


Normally I’m opposed to selecting a tight end with high draft capital, but Gronk’s placement amongst the player pool makes him hard to ignore. In year’s past, you’d have to take Gronk among proven and reliable running backs and wide receivers, but that’s not the case this season. With New England bringing in another capable tight end, Gronkowski was used more in the vertical passing game and the results were tremendous. Gronk averaged a career-high 21.6 yards per reception and his averaged depth of target was 15.6 yards after averaging 10.3 yards for his career prior. The Patriots brought in Dwayne Allen to fill in the role departed by Martellus Bennett and Brandin Cooksto keep the attention of high safeties, which should allow Gronk to terrorize the seam like he was last season. Of course, Gronk hasn’t played 16 games in a season since 2011, which is always a big issue when investing such a high pick into a player – especially at a position that foregoes you to select a good running back or receiver – but when Gronk plays, he shines bright. He’s been a top-12 scoring tight end in 44 of his 56 games over the past five seasons and Odell BeckhamJulio Jones and A.J. Green are the only pass catchers who average more points per game than the 11.6 Gronk has averaged per game in standard leagues since he entered the league.


Doug Baldwin – Aggregate ADP: 25.8


Baldwin has now increased his targets, receptions, and receiving yardage in five consecutive seasons and is a great example that the word “regression” isn’t quite the boogeyman people treat it as. Only Antonio BrownJulio Jones and Odell Beckham have more 20-point PPR games than Baldwin over the past two years (he’s had four in each season if you think I’m cheating by going back into 2015). He’s had limited middle ground, however, which isn’t something you’d expect from a slot receiver for fantasy. In 2016, Baldwin finished as a top-10 scorer in five games, but also fell outside of the top-30 in eight games. In Seattle’s offense, he doesn’t run into the plethora of targets (25th in targets per game in 2016) of the receiving company he keeps in ADP, but he thrives on efficiency. Baldwin has caught 75 percent of his targets in each of the past two years, the first player since Wes Welker to have multiple seasons of catching at least 75 percent of 100 or more targets. I would have no issue with someone pulling the trigger on Baldwin over someone like Dez Bryant in the back of the second round.


If you’re already a Draft Guide user, you can see the entire column here. 

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